A recent poll of Arab Americans found that Israel's war on Hamas could have a significant impact on the election next month. Conducted by John Zogby Strategies for the Arab American Institute, the poll surveyed 500 Arab American registered voters, and found a significant shift in the community's support away from Democrats. Arab Americans have traditionally leaned heavily Democratic, but the Biden administration's handling of the war in Gaza has weakened that support, with voters now split evenly between the two parties at 38.5% for each.
The poll also showed a decline in voter interest among the community, with only 63% of Arab Americans expressing enthusiasm about voting in November, down from the usual 80%. The decline could hurt Vice President Kamala Harris, whose prospects among Arab American voters have fallen since 2020, when President Joe Biden won nearly 60% of the their vote. In a multiple candidate matchup, Harris is polling neck and neck with former President Donald Trump, in the 41%-42% range. Among likely voters, Trump is beating Harris 46% to 42%.
Many Arab Americans say the war in Gaza will be a key issue come Election Day, with 81% calling it an important factor. The poll also suggests that if Harris or Trump took a stronger stance against Israel, they could gain more support among Arab Americans.
The nationwide poll of 500 Arab American registered voters was conducted online from Sept. 9 to 20. No margin of error was provided.