The first major poll after Vice President Kamala Harris' lone sit-down interview has shown a "reversion back toward Mr. Trump," as Donald Trump leads The New York Times/Siena College poll going into Tuesday's lone debate.
Trump's lead nationally among likely voters is just 1 point (48%-47%), within the margin of error, but even the Times noted Trump's "support remains remarkably resilient" despite positive media buzz after Harris taking the Democrat crown from President Joe Biden and the Democratic National Convention.
Notably, Democrats historically have an edge in support in national polls due to the large strangleholds on registered voters in the largest blue states of California and New York that do not impact the Electoral College but can skew the popular vote and a national poll.
"Whatever the explanation, the Times/Siena poll would be one of the first opportunities to pick up a reversion back toward Mr. Trump," according to The New York Times poll analysis.
"Overall, the poll may bring Democratic exuberance back to earth after a buoyant party convention in Chicago last month and rapid gains in support for Ms. Harris after Mr. Biden's poor showing in the polls."
The poll result is largely mirroring that of a late-July Times poll taken just after the switch from Biden to Harris.
"Mr. Trump may have had a rough month following the president's departure and amid the burst of excitement that Ms. Harris brought Democrats, but the poll suggests his support remains remarkably resilient," the Times analysis read.
"The national results are in line with polls in the seven battleground states that will decide the presidential election, where Ms. Harris is tied with Mr. Trump or holds slim leads, according to New York Times polling averages. Taken together, they show a tight race that remains either candidate’s to win or lose."
An undecided voter leaning toward Trump is anxious to hear Harris in the public square.
"I don't know what Kamala's plans are," Dawn Conley, 48, from Knoxville, Tennessee, told the Times. "It's kind of hard to make a decision when you don't know what the other party's platform is going to be."
One Trump backer said Harris is more of the same of the Biden administration.
"I don't see how Kamala Harris instead of Trump would bring change," Steven Osborne, 43, of Branson, Missouri said. "I mean, she's Joe Biden's vice president. How can she be seen as different?"
A majority of 55% of likely voters agreed Harris represents "more of the same," while just 40% say Harris represents "change."
Trump is the "change" candidate for 61% of voters.
Among the other strengths Trump showed in the poll, according to Times' analysis:
- Trump is more favorable now than he was when he was elected in 2016 and the incumbent in 2020.
- Trump has a 5-point lead on Harris on whichever the most important issue was to a voter. Pollsters asked a two-part question: 1. What's the most important issue; 2. Is Harris or Trump better on it.
- Trump "occupies the center." While a near majority say Trump is neither "too far" from the middle, a nearly majority says Harris is too far to the left.
The Times/Siena College poll of 1,695 voters nationwide was conducted Sept. 3-6, and the margin of error is plus or minus 2.8 percentage points.