In a polling pool that said it voted for President Joe Biden in 2020 by 7 points (52%-45%), Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump leads Vice President Kamala Harris by 1 point (46%-45%), according to the latest The New York Times/Siena College poll released Sunday.
"I think I'm going Republican this time because, really, the economy is the biggest issue for me," Atlanta voter Oliver Funk, 25, told the Times. "I think Donald Trump will be better at handling just everyday prices than what we've seen in the past four years.
"I think that’s funny to say 'American democracy is under threat.' There's actually democracy under threat around the world. We're pretty coddled and pretty safe. Actually, extremely safe."
Despite that data point above and that voter's position, the Times' analysis focused on the Democrats' election narrative of "threat to democracy" weaponized against Trump – albeit without the story mentioning multiple assassination attempts against Trump or the fact Harris eschewed the democratic process by not competing in the Democrat presidential primary won by Biden by a landslide.
The story dutifully mentions the Democrat narratives of "the 2020 presidential election, the criminal conviction of former President Donald J. Trump and Mr. Trump’s continued insistence that the democratic process is rigged," however.
The Times/Siena College poll results among registered voters in a full field:
- Republican Trump 46%
- Democrat Harris 45%
- Green Party Jill Stein 2%
Independents and third-party candidates Robert F. Kennedy, Cornel West, Libertarian Chase Oliver, and another unnamed candidate each received less than 1% support. There were 1% who vowed to not vote because those were the choices, while 4% do not know who to vote for or refused to answer.
The Times analysis homed in on the Democrat narrative of the threat to democracy with the headlined "Voters Are Deeply Skeptical About the Health of American Democracy."
Its subheadline did suggest a dissatisfaction with the Biden-Harris administration, though: "Nearly half say it does not do a good job representing the people, and three-quarters say it is under threat."
But that narrative does not mention the fact a plurality of votes say American democracy "does a good job representing people" (49%), trumping the 45% it "does not do a good job representing the people."
But those polled do admit overwhelmingly under Biden-Harris that American democracy "is currently under threat" (76%), while just 20% replied it "is not currently under threat."
Vital to Americans is their personal finances, according to a Norfolk, Virginia, social worker.
"I even have to go to a food bank, and my husband and I make a decent salary, and we still can’t wholly make ends meet with three children," Tyra Jackson-Taylor, 51, told the Times. "It's just a lot, me having to work and him work overtime, just to try to make the ends meet."
Despite the skepticism of American economics and democracy as laid out by the Times, the poll does show overwhelming confidence the election will accurately present a true victor.
The confidence in the 2024 election is up 10 points from 2022 midterms, as nearly 80% of voters trust the upcoming election result will be accurate. That includes a majority of Republicans, Democrats, and independents. That figure was about 70% just two years ago, representing an increase in U.S. election confidence, despite the Times story's concern for American democracy.
Also, the Times report noted "few voters say that concerns about democracy are central to their vote. Just 7% of voters said democracy was the most important issue regarding their choice for president."
The Times poll featured 2,516 voters polled nationwide by Siena College (Oct. 20-23). the margin of error among likely voters is plus or minus 2.2 percentage points.