Emerson Polls: Trump Leading Biden in Seven Battleground States

Former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden (AP)

By    |   Tuesday, 30 April 2024 12:02 PM EDT ET

Former President Donald Trump is leading President Joe Biden in seven battleground states, new polls from Emerson College Polling/The Hill found.

According to the surveys, Trump holds a narrow advantage — albeit largely within the margins of error — over Biden in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

In North Carolina, the former president is up about 5 points over the current one, at around 47% support to Biden's 42%. In Arizona, Trump is up 4 points, with 48% versus the Democrat incumbent's 44%.

The presumptive GOP nominee is leading by 3 points in Georgia, garnering 47% to Biden's 44%, and by 2 points in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, where he pulls 47% to Biden's 45% in each.

Trump also ekes out a 1-point advantage in Michigan and Nevada, at 45% to Biden's 44% in each, according to the poll.

"The state of the presidential election in swing states has remained relatively consistent since Emerson and The Hill started tracking them last November," Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, told The Hill.

"The share of undecided voters has reduced and Biden gained ground in Georgia and Nevada, narrowing the gap, while Trump has maintained a slight edge on Biden in the swing states," he added.

When undecided voters are asked to pick which candidate they're leaning toward, Trump's lead widens, with the surveys finding a 4-point advantage in Michigan, Arizona, and North Carolina and a 3-point advantage in both Wisconsin and Georgia.

When independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is added in as a choice, Trump's lead swells to 9 points in North Carolina, 6 points in Georgia, 5 points in both Wisconsin and Nevada, and 4 points in Pennsylvania. In Arizona and Michigan, his margins of victory would remain the same.

Having each crossed the delegate threshold to become their respective party nominees, Trump and Biden are barreling toward a rematch of their 2020 contest in November. Both men have made an effort to spend time in these battlegrounds, as polling indicates that the race for the White House will come down to roughly half a dozen states.

With just six months to go before Election Day, Trump is on trial in New York, as a Manhattan jury considers a criminal case against him related to allegedly falsifying business records to conceal a payment made to porn star Stormy Daniels in the run-up to the 2016 election. Facing felony charges, the former president has pleaded not guilty and denies any wrongdoing.

The Emerson College Polling/The Hill polls were conducted April 25-29 and surveyed 1,000 registered voters from each state. They have a credibility interval, similar to the poll's margin of error, of plus or minus 3%.

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Former President Donald Trump is leading President Joe Biden in seven battleground states, new polls from Emerson College Polling/The Hill found.
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