Republican presumptive nominee Donald Trump leads President Joe Biden by 1 point head-to-head among voters in three battleground states, according to a new FAU PolCom Lab/Mainstreet Research poll released Tuesday.
However, with the addition of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to the mix, the lead swings into Biden's favor in the aggregate, according to the survey.
Trump leads Biden 44% to 43% among all voters and likely voters head-to-head across the three states, according to the survey. Breaking down the differential by state, however, Trump wins one state outright while they split the categories in the other two:
- Pennsylvania: Trump leads Biden by 2 points among all voters (45% to 43%) and likely voters (47% to 45%);
- Wisconsin: Biden leads Trump 40% to 38% among all voters, but Trump flips the results among likely voters, 41% to 40%;
- Michigan: The pair are knotted at 45% apiece among all voters but Biden leads among likely voters, 47% to 46%.
Biden won all three states in 2020 by thin margins.
"Neither side has a meaningful advantage in any of the three states at this time," Dukhong Kim, associate professor of political science at FAU, said in a statement.
However, the addition of Kennedy to the hypothetical poll changes the results in Biden's favor, dramatically so in one state.
In Wisconsin, Biden opens a 7-point lead over Trump among all voters, 38% to 31%, with RFK Jr. pulling in 13%, according to the survey. Among likely voters, the lead shrinks to 5 points in Biden's favor, 40% to 35%, with RFK Jr. getting 12%.
In Pennsylvania, Biden leads Trump 41% to 39% among all voters, with RFK Jr. getting 8%. Biden's lead shrinks to 1 point (43% to 42%) among likely voters, with RFK Jr. polling at 7%, according to the survey.
In Michigan, Biden leads Trump 41% to 39% among all voters, with RFK Jr. pulling 11%. Among likely voters, Biden leads 44% to 43% with RFK Jr. getting 8%, according to the survey.
Across all three states with RFK Jr. factored in, Biden leads Trump 40% to 38% among all voters and 42% to 41% among likely voters.
At this time, however, RFK Jr. is confirmed qualified for just one of the states surveyed — Michigan. He has until Aug. 2 to turn in the signatures required to qualify for Pennsylvania and Aug. 7 to make Wisconsin.
FAU PolCom Lab/Mainstreet Research surveyed 2,068 adults in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin from May 30-31. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.2 points.