Former Republican President Donald Trump holds a slim 3-point lead over Democrat rival and Vice President Kamala Harris in Arizona, according to a new poll from Noble Predictive Insights.
The latest Arizona Public Opinion Poll (AZPOP) found 47% of voters backing Trump, compared to Harris' 44%. Just 9% of voters say they are undecided, which is down from 15% who said they were undecided in the May AZPOP survey.
Trump's leading margin remains unchanged from May, when he was leading President Joe Biden, 44% to 41%. Biden ended his reelection bid in late July and endorsed Harris.
"Almost every poll is somewhere between Harris +5 and Trump +5," David Byler, NPI chief of research, said. "That suggests an almost tied race. We give a small edge to Trump in this poll — but, with more than two months to go, either candidate could win the state."
According to the survey, voters say they trust Trump more on immigration (+14), inflation (+9), taxes (+8), and gun policy (+7). Harris, however, leads on issues progressive voters care about, including abortion (+13) and climate change (+12). She also has a slight edge when it comes to education (+5) and healthcare (+4), but neither candidate is leading on the issues of affordable housing and uniting the country.
"One party switched their candidate, but this is still a Republican vs. Democrat race," Byler said. "Trump has retained his strength on immigration — his signature issue — and is capitalizing on negative feelings about the Biden economy. He'll likely double down on immigration since Harris led the Biden administration's efforts on that issue. Harris is hammering Trump on abortion, a weakness for the GOP since [the Supreme Court] Dobbs [decision], and climate change. If it was still Biden vs. Trump, they'd be fighting about many of these same issues."
The poll also asked about the personality traits that voters associate with each candidate. While Trump is viewed as more disrespectful (+14), prejudiced (+12), and reckless (+9), he is also seen as more patriotic (+11) and humorous (+6). The survey found that Harris was viewed as more compassionate (+9).
"People remember the Trump economy fondly — but they don't love Trump himself," NPI Founder and CEO Mike Noble said. "The Trump team will want to hammer on his positive characteristics heading into November. Harris is in a better position than Biden was. She takes the age issue off the table, and she keeps a lead in categories like compassion. She can also run against Trump, who — according to voters — scores poorly on some key personality traits.
"But the real question — the one that no one knows the answer to — is how Harris fares under scrutiny," he continued. "She just secured the nomination, and voters don't know her the way they know Trump. Soon enough, they'll get to know her and either decide to put her in the White House or choose to give Trump a second chance."
The poll was conducted Aug. 12-16 and surveyed 1,003 registered Arizona voters. The margin of error is +/- 3.09%.