A new Harvard CAPS/Harris poll shows former President Donald Trump with a narrow lead over Vice President Kamala Harris among early voters in battleground states. According to the survey, 48% of early voters in critical swing states are backing Trump, while 47% are choosing Harris. Around 5% picked a third choice or said they hadn't voted yet.
Poll co-director Mark Penn said Trump's "swing state strategy is paying off," noting that the GOP candidate holds a 2-point lead overall in these regions, with 48% support to Harris' 46%.
Despite the edge in battlegrounds, the poll found Harris performing well nationally among early voters, leading Trump by 8 points — 51% to 43%.
According to the survey, 45% of voters plan to vote early, while 50% say they will wait until Election Day.
Recent polling shows the two candidate neck-and-neck in all seven swing states. Nationally, an aggregate of polling compiled by The Hill/Decision Desk HQ shows Harris with a slim lead over Trump, at 50% to 47%. Both candidates are focusing heavily on the battleground states, which will likely decide the outcome of the Nov. 5 vote.
The Harvard/Harris poll, conducted Oct. 11-13, surveyed 3,145 registered voters — including 2,596 likely voters and 898 battleground state voters. The margin of error for the total sample was ± 1.8 percentage points.