A new Gallup poll shows Republicans leading on nine out of 10 key issues the pollster uses to determine which side has an advantage ahead of the election. Gallup said the GOP trails only on the approval of Congress, and voters don't like either party on that.
"The political environment suggests the election is Trump's and Republicans' to lose," Gallup said. "Nearly every indicator of the election context is favorable to the Republican Party, and those that aren't are essentially tied rather than showing a Democratic advantage."
Party identification has traditionally been a strong indicator in predicting election outcomes, Gallup said, and this year, 48% say they are, or lean, Republican, versus 45% who are, or lean, Democrat — a GOP advantage not seen in decades.
Gallup said, "Republicans previously have not had an outright advantage in party affiliation during the third quarter of a presidential election year, and they have rarely outnumbered Democrats in election and non-election years over the past three decades."
The second highly predictive measure is which party voters believe will better handle big problems. In this, too, Republicans outgun Democrats, by 46%-41%, mostly on the view they are better suited to handle the economy. The poll finds that respondents view the GOP as the party that will make American prosperous by a 50%-44% margin.
The GOP is also getting help because of voter dissatisfaction with the Biden administration. Gallup said, "Biden's unpopularity could still affect the election to the extent voters transfer their frustrations with the Biden administration to Vice President Kamala Harris. For her part, 44% of U.S. adults approve of the job she is doing as vice president, down slightly from a 47% reading in August."
The Gallup survey took place between Sept. 3 and 15, polling 1,007 people, and has a margin of error of ± 4 percentage points.