It has been rare for Republican presidential candidates to lead national polls this century, but GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump's MAGA movement is changing that in this election cycle.
The two most recent national polls in the RealClearPolitics polling average have Trump leading Harris nationally among likely voters:
A Republican candidate leading nationally, or garnering the popular vote in presidential elections, is very rare, conservatives note, because of the large Democrat strangleholds in the biggest states of California, New York, and Illinois. Those states have very large majorities of registered Democrats compared to Republicans.
While Democrats often waive the flag of "democracy," conservatives frequently note the U.S. is a "constitutional republic" which picks the president on the Electoral College votes of the states and not the popular vote.
The TIPP Insights tracking poll headline hailed "Trump Surges Past Harris, Seizing 2-Point Lead," with just 16 days left before election day Nov. 5, and the analysis noted the polling results represent "a dramatic momentum shift" from Harris to Trump.
Notably, the left-leaning Washington Post hailed the TIPP polling as the most accurate pollster in the 2020 presidential election. Also, TIPP noted from media reviews, it was just one of two national pollsters to project Trump as the 2016 presidential election winner.
The national poll lead is significant, Trump backers have noted frequently on Newsmax, including presidential adviser Dick Morris and pollsters John and Jim McLaughlin. Even a slight deficit to a Democrat in national polling would portend a Republican victory in the Electoral College, they postulate, because the race truly comes down to the seven battleground states.
RealClearPolitics gives Trump a 1-point lead (48.4%-47.4%) in a composite of swing state polling in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Trump leads every single one of the seven battlegrounds in the RCP polling average:
- Arizona (11 Electoral College votes): Trump up 1.6 points (49%-47.4%)
- Georgia (16): Trump up 1.8 points (48.8%-47%)
- Michigan (15): Trump up 1.2 points (48.8%-47.6%)
- North Carolina (16): Trump up 0.5 points (48.4%-47.9%)
- Nevada (6): Trump up 0.8 points (47.7%-46.9%)
- Pennsylvania (19): Trump up 0.7 points (48.1%-47.4%)
- Wisconsin (10): Trump up 0.2 points (48%-47.8%)
The TIPP Tracking Poll surveyed 1,254 likely voters Oct. 17-19, and the results have a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points.
The Atlas National Poll surveyed 4,180 likely voters Oct. 12-17, and the results have a margin of error of plus or minus 2.2 percentage points.