NY Times/Siena Poll: Biden, Trump in Virtual Tie

In this combination photo, President Joe Biden speaks in Milwaukee, March 13, left, and former President Donald Trump speaks in New York, Jan. 11. (AP)

By    |   Saturday, 13 April 2024 12:51 PM EDT ET

President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump are in a virtual tie, with Biden nearly erasing Trump's early polling advantage, according to a new survey released Saturday by The New York Times and Siena College.

The latest poll shows Trump holding just a 1-point lead of 46% to Biden's 45%, marking an improvement for Biden since late February, when Trump held a lead of 5 percentage points over Biden, at 48% to 43%, reports The New York Times.

The poll was conducted of 1,059 registered voters between April 7-11 and carried a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points.

Biden's higher numbers appear to come from an improving standing with traditional Democrat voters and show that he is winning a higher share of those who supported him in 2020 than he did a month ago.

In that poll, Trump had secured 97% of his past voters compared to 83% for Biden, but the latest poll shows the margin is narrowing, with Trump netting 94% of his past voters compared to 89% for Biden.

Meanwhile, many other factors in the race seem to be unchanged, including the relative unpopularity of both presumptive nominees and the voters' view of the nation's status.

Most of the voters polled said that they think Biden is too old to be reelected and that they believe Trump has committed federal crimes.

The poll showed that 69% of voters think Biden, 81, is too old to serve effectively. Trump, who will be 78 years old in June, did not receive the same doubts, with just 41% viewing him as being too old to serve.

However, among voters older than 65, the share viewing Biden as being too old dropped significantly, the poll showed.

The survey was released before jury selection starts on Trump's criminal trial in New York City, where he is charged with falsifying business records in connection to payments made to former adult film star Stormy Daniels.

Trump also faces felony indictments in three other cases, but just 1 in 4 voters said they are paying close attention to Trump's legal proceedings.

Meanwhile, the poll shows Biden's support has grown slightly among Black and Latino voters, but still is behind traditional levels when it comes to Democrat support.

Biden's main levels of support came from older voters and women than from men and younger voters.

The poll's respondents also had a slightly higher number with favorable ratings for Trump, at 43%, compared to Biden, at 41%.

The economy, meanwhile, created particular issues for Biden, including among young voters, who said by 85% that the economy is fair or poor.

The numbers, though, were inverted regarding how Biden and Trump handled the economy as president, with 64% approving of Trump's handling and 63% disapproving of Biden's.

A small majority also approved of Trump's handling of immigration while he was president, with 64% disapproving of Biden's job on the issue.

In other numbers:

36% approve of Biden's managing of conflicts in Ukraine and Israel.

4% of voters approved of Biden's handling of foreign affairs.

70% of voters under 45 disapproved of Biden's handling of foreign affairs, compared to 53% of people 45 and older.

Equal 31% segments of respondents said Biden and Trump are "good for democracy," but equal shares of voters also called them a "risky choice" for the United States.

58% said they view the upcoming Trump business records charges as "fairly serious."

40% of women compared to 20% of men saw the charges as very serious, with 35% of men compared to 15% of women saying the charges are not serious at all.

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President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump are in a virtual tie, with Biden nearly erasing Trump's early polling advantage, according to a new survey released Saturday by The New York Times and Siena College.
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