Report: National Crime Stats Complicate Trump's Moves

Rural states in the American South and West recorded some of the nation's highest violent crime and homicide rates in 2024, according to FBI data analyzed by Axios.

Much of this violence is concentrated in small towns, which Axios concluded puts a complicating twist on the political narrative around crime as President Donald Trump threatens to deploy the National Guard to Democrat-led cities.

Trump has already sent troops to Washington, D.C., and warned of sending them to Chicago, Oakland, and Baltimore. The Axios analysis shows that many rural, Republican-led states face even higher crime rates than these cities.

Southern states, including Louisiana, Tennessee, Alabama, Arkansas, and South Carolina, all reported violent crime and homicide rates well above the national average. Alaska, the most rural state, topped the nation with a violent crime rate of 1,194 per 100,000 residents — over three times the U.S. average. New Mexico followed with 758 per 100,000. Both also led in homicides, with more than twice the national rate of five per 100,000 residents.

By contrast, Illinois, home to Chicago, ranked 20th in homicide rates. California and New York, frequent political targets, had large overall crime numbers due to their populations, but per-capita rates similar to Arkansas and Tennessee.

Small cities drive much of this rural crime. Fairbanks, Alaska, had a violent crime rate double the national average. McKeesport, Pennsylvania, recorded a homicide rate more than six times the U.S. average, linked to long-term economic decline. In Tennessee, Dyersburg reported both high violent crime and homicide rates.

While urban crime often dominates media and political debate, experts note that rural violence – often fueled by drug addiction – receives less attention. "Most media outlets are centered in urban areas and focus just on crime there," said Illinois State University professor Ralph Weisheit.