Election forecaster Sabato's Crystal Ball predicts a razor-thin majority in the House after all the votes are counted, with Democrats slightly favored to take 218 seats, while Republicans hold 217.
In a piece published Monday, Editor-in-Chief Larry Sabato, Managing Editor Kyle Kondik, and Associate Editor J. Miles Coleman said, "Just like the presidential race, the battle for the House has been a toss-up for essentially the whole cycle."
They added, "Our general belief throughout was that the presidential and House winner was likelier than not to be the same. Our final ratings reflect this, but only by the barest possible margin and with little confidence. We have 218 seats Safe, Likely, or Leaning Democratic, and 217 Safe, Likely, or Leaning Republican."
Republicans currently hold a slim majority in the House, but face an uphill battle to retain it, with The Hill/Decision Desk HQ giving the GOP a 52% chance of success.
The editors highlighted Iowa's 1st District, where incumbent Mariannette Miller-Meeks, a Republican, has shifted from "Leans Republican" to "Leans Democratic."
The piece also revamped the forecasters' predictions for the races of Reps. Eric Sorensen, D-Ill., Pat Ryan, D-N.Y., and Angie Craig, D-Minn., saying they went "from Leans Democratic to Likely Democratic, as Republicans never seemed to get real traction against any of them and any losing would be a huge upset."
The forecast also included lesser-watched races. "We also are moving a couple of sleepers that have been mostly ignored by the big outside spending groups on each side from Likely to Leans: the open, Democratic-held MD-6 that runs northwest from the D.C. suburbs and Rep. Nick LaLota's, R-N.Y., race on Long Island against former CNN commentator John Avlon, D," they added.