President Donald Trump is set to score a major foreign policy win as NATO leaders gather in The Hague to adopt a landmark pledge committing alliance members to spend 5 percent of their gross domestic product on defense — a goal largely shaped by the President’s longstanding demands, Politico reported.
Trump is poised to claim a major victory at next week’s NATO summit, where the alliance’s 32 members are expected to adopt a new pledge to raise defense spending to 5 percent of their respective GDPs. The historic commitment comes after years of pressure from Trump, who has repeatedly called on European nations to take on more responsibility for their defense.
“There is no way they would be going to 5 percent without Trump,” said one administration official, who was granted anonymity to share the President’s views. “So he sees this as a major win, and it is.”
Under the proposed agreement, 3.5 percent of each member nation's GDP will be dedicated to military expenditures, with the remaining 1.5 percent allocated for other defense-related efforts. Trump is expected to deliver a speech Wednesday to mark the summit's conclusion and celebrate the agreement as a direct result of his leadership.
Still, challenges remain.
Some member states are requesting flexibility. Spain, which has the alliance’s lowest defense spending rate, is asking for an exemption while negotiations over a deadline to meet the new benchmark are unresolved.
“They’re thinking of a timeline that is, frankly, a decade,” said Ivo Daalder, former U.S. ambassador to NATO. “Trump is probably thinking of a timeline that is by the end of this decade, if not sooner. That’s where I think [the summit] can blow up.”
The summit has been shortened from the usual two-day format to a single 24-hour session to maintain unity and avoid confrontation. The agenda centers almost entirely on the defense pledge, minimizing potential friction points.
“He has to get credit for the 5 percent — that’s why we’re having the summit,” said one European defense official, speaking anonymously. “Everything else is being streamlined to minimize risk.”
Despite supporting increased allied defense spending, Trump has stated the 5 percent target should not apply to the United States, which currently spends 3.4 percent of GDP on defense. The President’s recent remarks suggesting possible U.S. military involvement alongside Israel against Iran have added uncertainty to the summit, though no formal discussions on the Middle East are planned.
There are no scheduled meetings of NATO’s Ukraine council, and it is unclear whether Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, invited to Tuesday’s welcome dinner, will attend.
Disagreement over the timeline remains a sticking point.
While the United States and some Eastern European nations support a 2030 deadline, smaller countries prefer more time. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has floated 2032 as a compromise, but 2035 may emerge as the final consensus.
Trump’s previous threat to withdraw from NATO in 2018 hangs over the summit, while the war in Ukraine has since prompted many countries to meet earlier spending goals and strengthened the alliance with new members like Sweden and Finland.
Jim Thomas ✉
Jim Thomas is a writer based in Indiana. He holds a bachelor's degree in Political Science, a law degree from U.I.C. Law School, and has practiced law for more than 20 years.