Gordon Chang, author and China expert, said Saturday on Newsmax that a trade deal between the United States and China is possible but unlikely to happen quickly, citing Beijing’s resistance to fundamental economic reforms.
“There very well could be a deal, but I think it's going to take quite some time,” said Chang, author of "The Coming Collapse of China,"on "Wake Up America Weekend." "We've had a trade deal with China — many of them."
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent "is talking about a deal that will rebalance the Chinese economy. That means structural change. [Chinese President] Xi Jinping has been adamantly opposed to structural change of the Chinese economy," he said.
Chang warned that even if a deal is reached, China may not follow through on its commitments.
"I think that would be a deal which China definitely won't honor," he said.
He pointed to the 2020 phase one trade agreement, which required China to purchase more American goods.
"All it had to do was to meet certain targets on the purchase of American commodities and manufactured goods, and they failed to meet their obligations under that one as well," Chang said. "I don't know how we can get China to honor a trade deal."
The comments come amid signs of a potential thaw in U.S.-China trade tensions. Beijing said Friday it is "evaluating" a U.S. offer to hold talks over the sweeping tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump — 145% on Chinese imports, compared with China's 125% in retaliatory measures.
"First of all, we see these large investments by foreign companies. And the most important one Trump announced was TSMC, the Taiwan semiconductor manufacturing business. That actually is the biggest investment in the U.S. ... $165 billion in total."
“This is the type of manufacturing that we need,” Chang added. He said economic trends, including automation and artificial intelligence, favor the U.S. and could help bring smaller-scale manufacturing back home — especially if Trump continues pro-business tax policies.
"If President Trump can keep the tax rates lower and if he can enact an investment tax credit, that would really help American manufacturers," he said.
Meanwhile, reports of worker unrest in China underscore the domestic strain the tariffs are placing on Beijing. Factory output has dropped to a 16-month low, with protests erupting over unpaid wages and poor conditions.
"There's enormous leverage that the United States has," Chang said. "Everything that China can do to retaliate hurts China as much or more than it does the United States."
He said Trump is in a strong negotiating position.
"There's only one card that Xi Jinping has to play, and that is to get President Trump to back down, to preemptively surrender," he said. "I don't think our president is going to do that, which means I think we're going to see China in a world of distress. Its economy is already failing ... in a deflationary spiral downwards.
"So this is a very critical situation for the Chinese economy. Trump holds the high cards," he said.
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