OPINION
Is a Political Earthquake on Iran's Horizon?
Political and societal changes in Iran are unfolding at an unprecedented pace.
Signs of this crisis are evident in various events, including a recent gathering of women dressed in burial shrouds in front of the Iranian Parliament.
Without legal authorization, they blocked roads to demand the enforcement of the mandatory hijab law.
In response, some factions within the regime dismissed these protests as suspicious, claiming that participants were paid to take part.
Mahmoud Nabavian, a senior member of the hardline Paydari Front, described these demonstrations as part of an "enemy plot" to incite unrest in the country.
What makes the situation even more volatile is the growing likelihood that these internal regime conflicts could escalate into a major crisis — or even a popular uprising.
"The Wolves' War"
Unlike in most countries, Iran’s political structure does not consist of traditional factions.
Rather, the regime is controlled by mafia-like power groups engaged in constant infighting over dominance and wealth.
These internal power struggles, commonly referred to by Iranians as "The Wolves' War," have become so intense that even Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei appears unable to contain them.
These escalating tensions expose deep fractures within the ruling establishment, signaling an unprecedented existential threat to the regime.
One powerful faction, led by a former presidential candidate, believes that the only way to prevent the collapse of the Islamic Republic is through the strict enforcement of repressive laws, such as mandatory wearing of the hijab.
Given the explosive state of the society and the regime’s repeated global failures, this faction views harsh laws as essential to maintaining control.
However, Iran’s Supreme National Security Council — the country’s highest security body— warns that enforcing these laws in the current climate could spark an uprising and has therefore advised against it.
This internal division demonstrates that even Khamenei's directives are no longer unconditionally obeyed within his inner circle.
Dismissal of Key Government Figures: Cracks in the Cabinet
The dismissal of Finance Minister Abdolnasser Hemmati and the removal of Javad Zarif, Vice President (and former Foreign Minister), mark yet another sign of the regime’s deepening crisis.
These key figures, who played central roles in shaping Iran’s economic and foreign policies, were ousted under mounting pressure from internal factions.
Khamenei had previously retained Zarif in the government to keep open a diplomatic channel with the West.
However, with increasing pressure from hardliners who consider Zarif politically "expired," he has now been sidelined.
At the same time, a significant number of MPs, defying Khamenei’s authority, are demanding the strict enforcement of hijab and morality laws.
These developments underscore a critical reality: Khamenei no longer has absolute control over his own government.
Iran’s Mega-Crises
Beyond political infighting, Iran is grappling with multiple severe crises, each of which could independently threaten the regime’s stability:
- Two-thirds of the population live below the poverty line.
- The national currency is in freefall, fueling rampant inflation.
- Corruption is deeply entrenched in every sector of government and the economy.
- Power outages have forced the closure of schools and factories.
- Tehran, the capital, is facing a severe water shortage.
According to the recently dismissed Finance Minister, over one million liters of diesel fuel are smuggled out of the country daily.
Meanwhile, growing poverty and repeated warnings in state-affiliated media about a "hungries’ revolt" have alarmed the authorities.
Additionally, Iran’s regional failures have fueled dissatisfaction within the ruling elite, challenging Khamenei’s influence, and authority.
Yet, despite these setbacks, Khamenei continues to insist in his speeches that "we have become even stronger."
The Rise of Resistance Units
Over the past decade, Resistance Units established by the People's Mojahedin Organization of Iran (MEK) have emerged as a significant challenge to the regime.
These thousands of units, active across the country, played a key role during the major protests of 2019 and 2022.
The Iranian regime has made extensive efforts to prevent the international community from recognizing the existence of these Resistance Units.
However, despite brutal crackdowns and even mass executions of their members, these groups continue to grow in strength and influence.
The regime's leadership fears that any protest — whether driven by economic hardship or political repression — could escalate into a nationwide uprising, similar to the 2019 fuel price protests, or the 2022 demonstrations following the killing of Mahsa Amini.
The main divide within the regime’s factions revolves around how to respond to these uprisings and the Resistance Units:
- Brutal, overt suppression.
- A more calculated, strategic crackdown to maintain the regime’s international and internal image.
Regardless of the approach, the fundamental fear remains the same: another uprising could mark the beginning of the end for the Islamic Republic.
A Changing Era
Iran appears to be entering a new phase.
The regime’s continued failures — ranging from the weakening of Hezbollah and other proxy groups to worsening domestic crises — are intensifying pressure on the government.
At the same time, the global policy of appeasement toward Iran has shifted. World powers are no longer turning a blind eye to the regime’s crimes. The country’s nuclear program has become particularly worrisome.
The conditions set by the international community for any engagement with Iran now include:
- A complete and verifiable halt to the nuclear program.
- An end to support for proxy forces across the region.
This leaves the regime at a crossroads:
- Continue its nuclear program and support for militias, as it has done until now.
- Interact with the international community, abandon these projects in exchange for a gradual lifting of sanctions.
So far, and especially since the fall of the Syrian dictator, Khamenei has firmly chosen the first path. He has publicly declared that negotiations with the United States are "neither rational, nor intelligent, nor honorable."
He has accelerated Iran’s nuclear program while stating that the "Syrian youth will eventually liberate Syria," a claim that contributed to recent escalations in Syria, costing over a thousand lives.
A Historical Exception?
There is, however, one historical exception:
In 1988, after years of war against Iraq and despite vowing to fight "until the last house in Tehran," the regime founder Ruhollah Musavi Khomeini was forced to accept a ceasefire — not peace — when faced with the existential threat posed by the National Liberation Army of Iran (the military wing of the MEK, based on the Iran-Iraq border).
However, given Khamenei’s extreme weakness and the fragility of his regime today, it is highly unlikely that he could make a similar strategic retreat, even if his survival depended on it.
Unlike Khomeini, Khamenei may lack the ability to save his regime from imminent collapse.
Hamid Enayat is based in Paris and is a noted expert on Iran. He has written extensively on issues pertinent to Iran and the Mideast region.