Pollster Nate Silver said Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., is the most likely Democrat to be the party's 2028 presidential nominee.
Speaking on his Silver Bulletin Substack with former FiveThirtyEight podcast host Galen Druke on Thursday, Silver called out Druke for choosing AOC first in their mock draft, noting her incredibly high favorability rating among fellow Democrats. A recent Yale University poll found the New York congresswoman earned a 60+ favorability within her party, the same as former Vice President Kamala Harris.
"I think there's a lot of points in her favor at this very moment," Druke explained. "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has broad appeal across the Democratic Party," adding, "I think equally important is the fact that she has very fervent support. I think a lot of people are gonna run in 2028, and it's going to be a contest for attention and getting those sort of people who might be in your boat to turn out and stay with you through thick and thin."
Silver said he "agreed with everything" Druke said but noted that AOC is not sure she will choose to run despite being an almost constant presence in headlines lately thanks to her "Fighting Oligarchy Tour" with independent Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders.
Silver's prediction regarding the far-left Ocasio-Cortez comes on the heels of another recent poll from Survey USA saying that half of Democrats want their party to move further to the left. Since Druke had already taken AOC first, Silver went with a more moderate pick to draft Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro.
"In the past three nomination races — you kind of have this compromise candidate where you have the moderates, and you have the progressives, and you get kind of somewhere in the middle," Silver explained. "If you're not going to pick an AOC — then maybe go to someone who's fully moderate, 'electable.'"
In the lead-up to the 2024 presidential election, Silver accurately predicted who would win the White House, saying that his "gut says Donald Trump."