OPINION
With the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s dictatorial regime in Syria, Turkey and its president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, can be viewed as a principal beneficiary.
Grappling with the Syrian civil war on its doorsteps for 13 years, Turkey was one of the few supporters of the Syrian opposition.
While the Turkish Government denies its direct involvement, observers believe that Turkey backed the lightning offensive led by Hyat Tahrir al-Sham that overthrew Assad and his cronies.
The change in regime leaves Erdoğan as the best situated foreign leader to capitalize on the rebels’ rapid ascent to power.
Nevertheless, for Turkey to assume the role of regional leader, Ankara must first address its political issues at home.
With multiple reports of Erdoğan’s declining health, increasing chatter from Ankara reveals that the Justice and Development Party (AK Party) is seeking a consolidation of power by appointing Erdoğan’s successor. The situation for the AK Party is further complicated by the outcome of the March 2024 elections wherein Turkey’s main opposition party, the Republican People’s Party (CHP), was triumphant in capturing nearly 38% of the national vote.
For the AK Party to lead Turkey in the years ahead, Erdoğan’s succession must be given careful consideration.
Importantly, over the past five years, the country’s economy struggled with skyrocketing inflation and the collapse of the Turkish lira. In early 2018, a Turkish person required 3.76 liras to buy one US dollar.
Today, that figure has soared to nearly 36 liras — a dramatic decline in Turks’ purchasing power. That one of the potential successors to Erdoğan is his son-in-law, Berat Albayrak – the Minister of Treasury and Finance from 2018 to 2020 and best known for being instrumental in Turkey’s economic downfall — hardly inspires confidence.
During his two-year tenure, Albayrak made several strategic mistakes that crashed the Turkish economy.
He notably insisted on low interest rates and the depletion of foreign currency reserves in his efforts to support the country’s currency.
Albayrak aligned with Erdogan’s unconventional view that lowering interest rates helps reduce inflation, opposing the widely accepted belief that high interest rates are required to curb rising prices.
This resulted in the Turkish lira losing 30% of its value against the U.S. dollar and brought the country’s economy to the brink of collapse.
The usage of foreign policy reserves to prop up the currency evoked widespread opposition claims that Erdoğan’s government squandered $128 billion liras.
Albayrak’s economic policy was coupled with vexatious speeches in international forums, such as investor meetings at the IMF and World Bank, that failed to boost market confidence.
Both domestic and international players questioned his competence, leading to Albayrak’s abrupt resignation from his ministerial position in an emotional Instagram post.
It's therefore reasonable to assume that naming Albayrak as a presidential successor would engender considerable resistance in Ankara, particularly given the rising popularity of the opposition.
Meanwhile, the Turkish opposition sees its own candidate, Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoğlu, as the most likely challenger to Erdoğan’s presidency.
Despite differences in policy, Erdoğan and Imamoğlu share much in common.
Both men hail from Turkey’s Black Sea region, regarded for its bare-knuckle politics, and earned widespread popularity for energizing crowds.
Both have held leadership roles in Turkey’s largest city and principal economic center, Istanbul, and both have encountered hostility from Turkey’s judiciary.
The similarities between the strongmen help explain the widespread support enjoyed by Imamoğlu.
To compete with the opposition, the ruling party will require a trusted, competent, and popular leader.
One of the key names under consideration is Turkey’s sitting Minister of Foreign Affairs, Hakan Fidan. Having been instrumental in Turkey’s foreign policy for the past two decades, Fidan has strong international and domestic standing.
He is known for his tough stance on national security issues, as well as taking assertive positions in global affairs.
Fidan also played a crucial role in restructuring the country’s intelligence, security, and foreign policy systems, giving him experience in managing both Turkey’s domestic and foreign affairs.
Notably, having held the role of the director of Turkey’s National Intelligence Service for 13 years, Fidan has a deepand detailed understanding of Syria, Russia, and the Mideast — key issues for Turkey for years to come.
While the next presidential election in Turkey is not scheduled until 2028, change could come sooner. A NATO member and a crucial actor in the Mideast, Turkey needs to be prepared for geopolitical shifts globally.
For Ankara to assume the role of regional leader and potential mediator, Turkey must ensure stability at home with leadership that is capable of safeguarding economic growth and navigating complicated domestic politics.
Ivan Sascha Sheehan is a professor of Public and International affairs and the associate dean of the College of Public Affairs at the University of Baltimore. Opinions expressed are his own. Follow him on X @ProfSheehan