The Cook Political Report altered its rating for the Arizona Senate race from "toss-up" to "lean Democrat" on Friday, citing the lack of a "palatable" Republican nominee in Kari Lake.
Lake is running against Rep. Ruben Gallego, D-Ariz., in the battle for the open seat vacated when Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, I-Ariz., opted against a reelection bid.
"If Republicans have succeeded in recruiting more palatable nominees in most states, Arizona remains the proverbial elephant in the room," Jessica Taylor wrote in her analysis for Cook, a nonpartisan election forecaster. "In many ways, Republicans were painted into a corner ever since 2022 gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake made clear she was running for the seat."
Lake lost to Democrat Gov. Katie Hobbs in Arizona's gubernatorial race in 2022.
The Arizona Senate seat is one of a handful that will determine whether Republicans can take back the Senate in November.
The Lake campaign told the Washington Examiner that she's "well positioned to win in November."
"She continues her strong fundraising numbers, is gaining in the polls, and is closely tied to [former] President [Donald] Trump, who is defeating [President] Joe Biden in Arizona," a Lake spokesperson said in a statement to the Examiner. "[Voters] do not like the Biden/Gallego open borders and high inflation."
It was reported earlier this week that the Lake campaign will launch a $10 million advertising campaign in the fall. Gallego has outraised her by $3 million so far.
A New York Times/Siena College poll released Monday has Gallego ahead by 3 points, while a poll last month from The Hill/Emerson University had Gallego up 2 points.
"Although this is still a competitive contest and may end up within the margin of error, we can no longer group it with the most competitive Senate contests on the board," Taylor wrote in her analysis.
The Center for Politics also has Arizona as "lean Democrat" in its last ratings report from April 17.
Republicans are hoping to win the open seat in West Virginia, with the retirement of Democrat Sen. Joe Manchin, meaning they need to flip one more to take back control of the Senate outright. Cook still lists Montana, Ohio, and Nevada as toss-ups.