The nonpartisan Cook Political Report shifted North Carolina from "lean Republican" to "toss-up" on Tuesday, a move that reflects Democrat presidential nominee Kamala Harris outperforming her predecessor in the state.
In its analysis, Cook said Republican nominee Donald Trump isn't performing any worse in North Carolina since President Joe Biden dropped out the race on July 21; it's that Harris is performing better than Biden did.
"In other words, the race is tightening, not because Harris is cutting into Trump's vote, but because Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents are coming home," wrote Amy Walter, Cook editor-in-chief The Hill reported.
Cook's shift follows that of Sabato's Crystal Ball last week, which also moved North Carolina from "leans Republican" to "toss-up."
Trump leads Harris by 4 points in North Carolina, according to FiveThirtyEight.com. Meanwhile, the RealClearPolitics polling average has Trump with a lead of 0.9 percentage point in the state.
Trump took North Carolina in the 2020 presidential election by a margin of 1.34 percentage points.