President Donald Trump's lead over and President Joe Biden in Nevada is right at the margin of error in the latest Emerson College Polling results released Thursday.
Trump is leading by 3 points (47% to 44%) among likely voters, but Trump's lead is even larger among registered voters in Nevada — a notoriously transient state. Trump holds a 7-point lead (46%-39%) among registered voters, making voter turnout in the state important for Trump's campaign.
The pollster also released swing-state polling in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin – all states that broke for Biden in 2020 and were contested by Trump before Jan. 6, 2021.
The Emerson results align with the RealClearPolitics polling average in the state, but the Siena College/The New York Times poll had Trump as an 11-point leader.
Combined in those above six key battleground states, Trump leads Biden by 4 points (45%-41%) among registered voters, with 14% of voters undecided. Among likely voters, Trump leads Biden by 3 points (47%-44%), with 9% of voters undecided.
"Biden is generally underperforming his 2020 support with voters under 30, whereas Trump has locked in his support with middle-aged voters," according to Emerson College Polling Executive Director Spencer Kimball.
"Likely voters under 30 break for Biden over Trump by 8 points across these six state polls, 47%-39%, with 14% undecided. Trump's base of support lies with the 50-64 year old general election voters, who support him over Biden by a 13-point margin, 52%-39%, while likely voters over 65 are evenly split between the two candidates: 46%-46%."
Emerson College polled 1,000 registered voters and 770 likely voters in Nevada from Oct. 30 to Nov. 4, and the results have a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.