Arizona infamously caused the political earthquakes in the 2020 presidential election night coverage when its early call raised Trump campaign ire, and the state appears headed for another razor-thin margin.
Former President Donald Trump leads President Joe Biden by 2 points (46%-44%) in the latest Emerson College Polling results released Thursday.
Those results make the race a virtual or statistical tie within the margin of error, but a Trump lead is noteworthy because polling had him trailing in the state in 2020. That polling margin controversially led to Fox News' decision desk to declare the state in Biden's column on election night, weeks before it was declared by Newsmax in November, 2020. The amount of election results reported in Arizona were less than 10% when Fox News called the state.
Arizona carries 11 Electoral College votes in the 2024 presidential election among the 270 to win the majority of the 538 total to win.
The Emerson results are just a touch less favorable for Trump than the RealClearPolitics polling average in Arizona.
The pollster also released swing-state polling in Georgia, Nevada, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin — all states that broke for Biden in 2020 and were contested by Trump before Jan. 6, 2021.
Combined in those six key battleground states, Trump leads Biden by 4 points (45%-41%) among registered voters, with 14% of voters undecided. Among likely voters, Trump leads Biden by 3 points (47%-44%), with 9% of voters undecided.
"Biden is generally underperforming his 2020 support with voters under 30, whereas Trump has locked in his support with middle-aged voters," according to Emerson College Polling Executive Director Spencer Kimball.
"Likely voters under 30 break for Biden over Trump by 8 points across these six state polls, 47%-39%, with 14% undecided. Trump's base of support lies with the 50-64 year old general election voters, who support him over Biden by a 13-point margin, 52%-39%, while likely voters over 65 are evenly split between the two candidates: 46%-46%."
Emerson College polled 1,000 registered voters and 778 likely voters in Arizona from Oct. 30-Nov. 4, and the results have a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.