Wisconsin was among the battleground states former President Donald Trump heavily contested after his 2020 election loss, spending $3 million for a recount that didn't go his way and cemented Joe Biden's victory by 20,608 votes.
An Emerson College poll released Thursday shows the race for the state's 10 electoral votes will be just as tight in 2024.
The poll of 1,000 registered voters in Wisconsin, conducted Oct. 30-Nov. 4, shows Trump with a 1-point lead (44%-43%) over Biden, with 14% undecided. But among 819 likely voters surveyed, the candidates were tied at 45% each, with 10% undecided. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points.
Emerson released swing-state polling in five other states — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan Nevada, and Pennsylvania — all that broke for Biden in 2020 and were contested by Trump before Jan. 6, 2021. And in all but Michigan, Trump has a lead over Biden.
The RealClearPolitics average polling for Wisconsin shows the race just as tight, with Biden having a narrow lead (46.5%-46%) over Trump. And in the recent Siena College/New York Times poll of the same six battleground states, Biden had a 2-point lead (47%-45%) over Trump.
Overall, among the six battleground states, the Emerson poll showed Trump with a 45%-41% lead over Biden among registered voters, with 14% undecided. Among likely voters, Trump leads 47%-44%, with 9% undecided.