President Joe Biden leads former President Donald Trump in eight head-to-head polls of the White House race, giving him a razor-thin national lead from 1-3 points.
It isn't clear, however, if the current edge would give the incumbent an overall victory in the Electoral College, Newsweek reported.
On March 12, the Democrat commander in chief and GOP former president each won a series of primary elections to become their party's presumptive White House nominees — and focused attention on how a likely presidential election between them would play out.
Here's a breakdown:
- A Mainstream Research/Florida Atlantic University survey conducted between March 15 and 17 found that among likely voters, 47% would vote for Biden "if the election for president were held today" against 45% for Trump. Four percent said they'd vote for "another candidate," while 4% said they were "undecided."
- Ipsos and Reuters conducted a poll of registered voters between March 7-13 found 39% would vote for Biden "if the 2024 election were today" against 38% who said the same for Trump; 11% would choose some other candidate," and the rest were either unsure or not voting.
- Civiqs' survey of registered U.S. voters online between March 9-12 found that 45% would vote for Biden in an immediate presidential election; 44% said the same about Trump.
- An Emerson College tally on March 5-6 found Trump and Biden tied at 45%. When undecided voters were asked which candidate they leaned toward, Biden garnered 51% while Trump got 49%.
- A March 22 survey by YouGov/The Economist gave Biden a 1-point lead a 45%-44% over Trump.
- A Kaiser Family Foundation poll on Feb. 20-28 gave Biden a 3-point lead over Trump, 47%-43%.
- A TIPP poll gave Biden a one-point lead, 44%-43%.
According to Newsweek, if Biden wins the popular vote in November, he could still lose the presidency to Trump because of how the Electoral College works. In 2016, Hillary Clinton carried the popular vote but lost to Trump, who won a majority of the Electoral College.
A Real Clear Politics aggregation of the battleground states of Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia show Trump leading Biden 46.7%-44.7%.