Vice President Kamala Harris is leading former President Donald Trump in Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, which could determine the presidency, according to a new CNN poll.
Harris leads Trump 53% to 42% in the district, which represents Omaha and the surrounding area, the CNN/SSRS poll found. Nebraska does not use a winner-take-all system, instead allocating its electoral votes by congressional district, with two votes going to the winner of the state.
Trump is expected to easily carry Nebraska statewide. If Harris wins Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and the 2nd Nebraska congressional district, while losing all other battleground states, she will earn exactly 270 electoral votes, the minimum needed to win election.
Since Nebraska began allocating its electoral votes in 1992, Barack Obama in 2008 and Joe Biden in 2020 have won the 2nd Congressional District.
Harris has the support of 61% of independent likely voters and 10% of Republican likely voters, according to the poll. Among women, Harris leads Trump 60% to 36%, while Trump leads with men, 50% to 45%.
A majority of voters in the 2nd Congressional District, 60%, said Nebraska should keep its system of awarding electoral votes, while 40% said they should switch to winner-take-all. The choice was split among party lines, with 86% of Democrats and 69% of independent voters wanting to keep the current system and 69% of Republicans wanting a switch.
Democrat Tony Vargas is leading incumbent Republican Rep. Don Bacon in the district, 50% to 44%. Vargas lost to Bacon by less than 3 points in 2022.
Voters in the 2nd District give Harris the edge on handling crime, democracy and abortion, with the two candidates split on the economy and immigration.
The poll was conducted from Sept. 20-25 with 749 voters participating. The margin of sampling error is 4 points.