A CNN polling analyst is warning Democrats not to pop the champagne just yet over a Kamala Harris election victory.
Senior data reporter Harry Enten said Tuesday the vice president is leading in three key swing states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, but he pointed out that polls underestimated Donald Trump in those states at this juncture in 2016 and in 2020 and may be doing so again.
"I just want to take a step back and sort of point out, we've kind of been here before," Enten said.
"So Aug. 13, how far were the polls off in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin? And this is in 2016 and 2020. Trump was [under]estimated both times around and by significant margins."
Enten added, "Trump was underestimated by 9 points on average at this point in 2016. How about 2020? It wasn't a one-off, look at this. He was underestimated by 5 points on average.
"And, of course, Kamala Harris' advantage in those New York Times/Siena College polls were 4 points in each of these key battleground states, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin."
Enten was referencing a New York Times/Siena College poll that showed Harris topping Trump 50% to 46% among likely voters in each of those three states.
"I will note this, Donald Trump is more popular today than he was on Aug. 13 in either 2020 or 2016. Kamala Harris is doing better in the polls, but there's a long way to go," he said.
"The polls can shift. The almost certain to vote hasn't actually shifted, and Donald Trump is more popular than he was at either 2016 or 2020 at this point.
"Bottom line," Enten said "Donald Trump is very much in this race."