Some call him "the Nostradamus of pollsters," when Frank Luntz talks elections. So when this noted pollster has something to say, America's political establishment sits up and listens.
He may work for Republican causes but the focus group czar has provided his prognosticating talents to a wide array of politicians, TV networks and Fortune 500 companies for decades.
So his takeaways from Day One of the Republican National Convention -- full steam ahead for a Trump ticket bolstered by Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance -- will likely alarm Democrats desperate to avert the tycoon's return to the Oval Office.
In an AFP interview, Luntz discussed what Vance brings to the Trump campaign as his pick for vice president, and takes stock of the state of the race, four months ahead of Trump's rematch with President Joe Biden.
- What does vice-presidential nominee J.D. Vance offer the Trump ticket? -
Clearly, it will have an impact on Ohio, but Ohio has been going Republican anyway. And Pennsylvania? I'm not sure because Trump is winning those votes on his own.
What (picking) J.D. Vance does is that it offers continuity. It says that when Trump is done, there's someone to follow in his footsteps. That's number one.
And number two, Ohio is one of the most important states in the US Senate -- to control the Senate -- and having Vance on the ticket is great for the Republican nominee there.
So this could have an impact on who wins the Senate November.
And third, he's tough. That blue collar, that working class -- that understanding of voters who traditionally were Democrats and have now found a home with Donald Trump -- he emphasizes that. He's written about it, he has the intellectual backing for what Trump feels instinctively.
- What do your focus groups tell you they're looking for in a vice president? -
Someone who can step into the job on Day One, someone who will not differ that much from the president, because they're still voting for the president.
And someone who takes their job seriously. And that's the problem with the current Vice President (Kamala Harris): too many people do not think she takes her job seriously.
- If the election were held today, what would the result be? -
If the election were held today, Donald Trump is the next president. But the election isn't being held today.
We have a convention, Democrats have a convention. Maybe -- maybe! -- there will be one more debate. But Donald Trump is in the driver's seat, not just because of polling, but because of intensity.
A Trump supporter today will be a Trump voter in November. Joe Biden can't make the same claim. They don't have the same kind of intensity on the Democratic side that the Republicans do.