Michael McDonald, a professor of political science at the University of Florida and the head of the U.S. Elections Project said he expects voter turnout to be lower than 2020.
McDonald said he is forecasting a 2024 voting-eligible population turnout rate of 64.7%, lower than 2020’s 66.4% rate, but higher than 2016’s 60.1%. He noted that 2020 saw the highest turnout rate since 1900.
McDonald said 2024 will have fewer mail ballots cast, expecting 48 million to be cast compared to 65.6 million cast in 2020, mainly due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
The seven battleground states are expected to have high turnout, McDonald said, expecting it to be similar to 2020. States that don’t have high profile races will probably see turnout decrease 2 to 3 points from 2020, he added.
McDonald further stated that he noticed mail ballot return rates appear to be down from 2020 in vote-by-mail states like California, Colorado, Oregon, Washington, and Utah.
Minnesota is expected to be the state with the higher voter turnout rate at 77%, with Oklahoma having the lowest voter turnout rate a 52.8%, McDonald said.
McDonald said his forecast may change all the way up to the morning of Election Day as the final early voting numbers are reported.