In a potential warning a sign for former President Donald Trump in Pennsylvania, Republicans are lagging behind Democrats in the early vote when it comes to seniors.
Voters over the age of 65 have cast nearly half of the early ballots, registered Democrats account for about 58% of votes cast by seniors, compared to 35% for Republicans, Politico reported. Both parties have roughly equal numbers of registered voters ages 65 and older, according to Politico.
Republicans have won the senior vote in the past five presidential elections.
Despite Democrats' lead, the partisan gap is actually narrower than it was in 2020, which Republicans believe work in their favor, Politico reported. Republicans expect more of their senior voters to show up on Election Day.
A Fox News poll had Trump running 5 points behind Vice President Kamala Harris among seniors in Pennsylvania. In 2020, Trump carried 53% of the senior vote in Pennsylvania, though he lost the state overall by a narrow margin.
According to a Democrat campaign operative, Democrats over the age of 65 are running 10% to 20% ahead of their Republican counterparts when it comes to turnout, Politico reported.
The same Democrat model shows Black voters over the age of 65 — and in particular older Black women, a core Democratic bloc — are returning ballots at a higher rate than any other demographic group, Politico reported.
Overall in Pennsylvania, Democrats hold a 25-point advantage in early voting, compared to nearly 50 points four years ago, an encouraging sign for the GOP, Politico reported. About 35% of Republicans who have cast ballots so far in Pennsylvania are voters who cast ballots on Election Day in 2020, according to analysis by Politico.
Politico said the early vote in the commonwealth might lean more Republican than 2020 while the Election Day voting is likely to be more Democrat.
Charlie Gerow, a Republican strategist in Pennsylvania, said Republicans, especially older Republicans, are accustomed to voting on Election Day.
"So if the numbers are that tightly squeezed, it says that Republicans are going to do very well on Nov. 5," Gerow said to Politico.
Polls show a close race between Trump and Harris among seniors in the "blue wall" states, with a CNN poll showing Harris leading Trump in Pennsylvania and Michigan and Trump leading Harris in Wisconsin. An ABC News poll had Harris leading Trump among older voters by 5 percentage points nationally. In 2020, Trump won seniors by 5 points.