Republican presidential front-runner Donald Trump leads President Joe Biden in 39 battleground congressional districts across the country, according to a new Cygnal poll.
Trump leads Biden 45% to 44%, with 11% undecided, in battleground districts across 19 states identified in the poll, which was published Tuesday. In the two-way hypothetical matchup, Trump leads Biden by 3 points among independents, according to the survey.
Further, adding Robert F. Kennedy Jr. into the mix hurts Biden more:
–Trump: 41%
– Biden: 37%
– RFK Jr.: 11%
– Undecided: 11%
Biden also does not benefit from a non-Trump Republican on the 2024 presidential ballot in November. In that scenario, Biden and the non-Trump candidate would be tied at 40% apiece with undecideds ballooning to 21%, according to the poll. A non-Trump Republican would have a 12-point advantage over Biden among independents.
"Trump's absence on the ballot would likely result in lower turnout," Cygnal's vice president of polling Brock McCleary said. "In other words, Republicans have more to lose than gain without Trump on the ballot."
On the flip side, Trump leads a non-Biden Democrat by 3 points, 43% to 40%, with 16% undecided. However, a non-Biden Democrat would get increased support from young and Black voters, according to the poll.
Trump also leads Biden in approval ratings from his first term as president. Trump carries an approval rating of 45% vs. 37% for Biden, with 40% approval from independents. Independents give Biden a 29% approval, according to the poll. Likewise, suburban voters approve of Trump 43% to 29% for Biden. Trump's approval is also higher than Biden among young and Black voters.
According to the survey, the top issue for battleground voters is inflation (29%), especially among independents. The top issue for swing district Republican voters is border security. On both issues, battleground voters trust Republicans more than Democrats to handle, with independents again driving the results.
Independents trust Republicans more by plus-38 points on border security, plus-22 points on crime, and plus-11 points on inflation.
Cygnal surveyed 1,500 likely general election voters — 76.9% of them white — from Jan. 16-18. The poll has a margin of error of plus/minus 2.45 points. More than half (54.6%) were suburban voters and 23.9% of those surveyed identified as independent. Nearly a third (29.8%) were 65 years old or older.