Former President Donald Trump holds a slim lead over President Joe Biden in Michigan in both a head-to-head matchup and an election with third-party candidates, according to a poll taken just before the first general election presidential debate of the 2024 election.
The survey, conducted by the Lansing-based market research firm EPIC-MRA, found that if Biden and Trump were the only candidates:
- 49% would vote for Trump.
- 45% would back Biden.
- 3% said neither or that they would not vote.
- 3% are undecided or refused to answer.
If the election were held today between Trump, Biden, independent candidates Robert Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein:
- 41% would support Trump.
- 38% would vote for Biden.
- 10% would pick Kennedy.
- 2% would support West.
- 2% would back Stein.
The firm is conducting a second poll of Michigan that aims to illustrate how the recent debate between Trump and Biden has influenced voters in the state.
"In a nutshell, you had Biden having a difficult time speaking the truth about a number of issues in a way that would be interesting and compelling," EPIC-MRA pollster Bernie Porn told the Detroit Free Press. "Trump was able to much more articulately tell a lot of things that were not necessarily truthful."
Porn also noted that Biden's approval ratings in the state, which are 30% positive and 69% negative, according to the survey, are far lower than Democrat Gov. Gretchen Whitmer's ratings, at 52% positive, 47% negative.
"One thing that could be helpful to Biden, although I'm not sure whether it will be helpful enough, is for Whitmer to more directly endorse and support Biden and explain why voters need to support and Michigan needs to support Biden," Porn said.
EPIC-MRA polled 600 Michigan active and likely voters by phone from June 21-26. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points.