A new poll by the Saint Anselm College Survey Center at the New Hampshire Institute of Politics (NHIOP) reveals that former President Donald Trump has a slight edge in favorability and electoral support in New Hampshire over President Joe Biden.
According to the poll, if the election were held today, Trump would narrowly edge out Biden in New Hampshire with support at 44% versus 42%.
Biden leads among voters with an unfavorable opinion of both candidates, securing support from 30% of this group, compared to Trump's 13%. Overall, 39% of respondents view Biden favorably and 59% unfavorably, while Trump has a marginally better favorability rating, with 42% viewing him positively and 57% negatively.
In New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District, Trump leads Biden 44% to 42%, reflecting the Republican Party's registration advantage. In the more rural 2nd District, where Democrats have a 4-point registration advantage, Trump still leads Biden by 43% to 41%. This suggests a potentially competitive race for the open House seat in the 2nd District.
Neil Levesque, executive director of the NHIOP, said, "Biden leads among voters who dislike both candidates. However, more Democratic voters are drifting toward independent candidates than their Republican counterparts. While 89% of Republicans are solidly backing Trump, Biden secures the support of only 82% of Democrats.
"For Biden to succeed, he must solidify his support among very liberal voters. Only 67% of this group supports him, with 15% still undecided. Trump, on the other hand, is faring better among moderates (44% to 38%), undeclared voters (40% to 38%), and swing voters (39% to 21%)."
The poll is based on online surveys of 1,746 registered voters in New Hampshire conducted June 28-29. The poll has an overall margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2.3% with a confidence interval of 95%. The data are not weighted by party registration or party identification.
This survey shows a shift from the previous Saint Anselm College poll in December, where Trump trailed Biden by 10 points in a hypothetical general election matchup. At that time, Biden garnered 90% of Democratic support and 49% of undeclared voters, leading to a 49%-39% advantage over Trump.