Democrat presidential nominee Kamala Harris leads former President Donald Trump by 1 point head to head in North Carolina, according to a new High Point University/SurveyUSA poll released Thursday.
Harris leads Trump 46% to 45% among all registered voters surveyed, with 8% undecided, according to the poll.
Among likely voters surveyed, however, Trump and Harris are tied at 47% apiece, the survey said. SurveyUSA's definition of "likely voters" is a combination of those who say they are "certain" and "probably will" vote. Trump leads the latter by 10 points, 50% to 40%.
"Whether the GOP convinces those less-than-certain 'probable' voters — 12% of all registered voters — to show up for the Trump-Vance ticket or whether the Democratic Party convinces them to stay home, vote third-party, or even switch to Harris-Walz may determine the outcome of the national contest," SurveyUSA said in its analysis.
Among the 27% of North Carolina voters surveyed who said "improving economic conditions" is the most important issue this cycle, Trump leads Harris by 23 points. Trump also leads by 62 points among the 11% who are mostly focused on "managing immigration," according to the poll.
Harris leads by 72 points among North Carolina voters who say "protecting democracy" is most important. Among those who said "abortion laws" is their top issue, Harris leads by 55 points, the survey said.
Election forecaster Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball moved North Carolina from "leans Republican" to "toss-up" earlier this week.
The Hill has Harris leading Trump by 1.2 points in the state. The RealClearPolitics polling average has Trump leading by less than 1 point.
Democrats have won the state just twice in modern presidential elections: Jimmy Carter in 1976 and Barack Obama in 2008.
SurveyUSA polled 1,053 registered voters in North Carolina from Aug. 19-21. It did not release a sampling margin of error or confidence interval.