A new Wall Street Journal poll found that President Joe Biden is facing a drop-off in support among what has historically been one of the Democratic Party's most loyal constituencies: Black men.
According to the survey of seven swing states, 30% of Black men polled said they were either definitely or probably going to vote for former President Donald Trump in November. The newspaper noted that it did not conduct comparable swing-state polling in 2020; but according to AP VoteCast, a large national poll, 12% of Black men nationwide voted for Trump that year.
The Journal's survey also found that 11% of Black women said they were definitely or probably going to vote for the former Republican president. In 2020, just 6% of Black women nationwide supported Trump, according to the Associated Press poll.
"I think winning back more Black men is going to be key for him," Michael Bocian, a Democratic pollster who conducted the Journal's survey, said of Biden.
Bocian conducted the poll along with Republican pollster Tony Fabrizio, who worked for a pro-Trump super PAC during the survey, but has since joined the Trump campaign.
Black women are less likely than Black men to support Trump, the Journal found, with some exploring third-party options or potentially staying home on Election Day.
In a sign that Biden has work to do to gain the support of many of these voters, some 42% of Black women who participated in the survey fell into a category that Journal pollsters say are anybody's vote. These voters indicated they have not yet decided who to vote for and might just as easily back an independent as one of the major-party candidates.
Biden's job performance on issues such as the economy and immigration has seemingly cost him a certain amount of standing in the eyes of some Black voters. Given how crucial Black voters are to the Democrats' coalition, losing Black support would greatly dim Biden's prospects for another term in the White House.
"In this particular election, the persuasion isn't just to vote or not to vote," Adrianne Shropshire, head of BlackPAC, a Democrat super PAC, told the Journal. "The persuasion is actually to get people to come to Biden and away from third parties and away from Trump."
According to Bocian, it isn't unusual for Black voters to solidify their support for Democrat candidates closer to the election.
"That said, Biden is further off than where we have seen Democrats in the past," Bocian said.
A Biden campaign aide told the Journal its $25 million battleground states advertising campaign included the largest and earliest investment in Black media outlets for a reelection campaign ever.
A Trump campaign spokesperson said, "Our coalition message to Black and Hispanic communities this election is simple: If you want strong borders, safe neighborhoods, rising wages, quality jobs, school choice, and the return of the strongest economy in over 60 years, then vote for Donald J. Trump."
The Wall Street Journal poll was conducted March 17-24 and surveyed 218-354 registered voters. Margins of error range from plus or minus 5.2 to 6.6 percentage points.