A new Emerson College poll found that Vice President Kamala Harris has a 1-point lead on former President Donald Trump nationally.
According to the survey, 49% of likely voters said they backed Harris, while 48% said they supported Trump. Just 1% of respondents said they will cast their ballot for someone other than the two major party nominees, and another 2% said they were undecided.
Harris' razor-thin lead falls well within the poll's 3-percentage point margin of error, however, making the 2024 presidential race a virtual draw.
When undecided voters were asked which candidate they leaned toward, Harris' support increased to 50% and Trump's ticked up to 49%.
Harris also had a favorability advantage over Trump, with 53% of voters saying they held a favorable view of the vice president, compared to 49% who held a favorable view of the former president. Forty-seven percent of those surveyed said they had an unfavorable view of Harris and 51% said the same of Trump.
Additionally, the poll found a substantial gender gap between those supporting Trump and those supporting Harris. Trump led Harris among men, 56%-42%, while Harris led Trump among women 55%-41%.
The most recent survey comes with Election Day a little over two weeks away and amid early voting in several states. Eight in 10 voters said they had decided whom to vote for more than a month ago, while 11% said they made up their minds in the last month. Six percent said they made their decision in the past week and 3% said they still had not decided.
"Voters who made their decision on who to support over a month ago break for Trump, 52% to 48%, while voters who made up their mind in the last month or week break for Harris, 60% to 36%," Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. "The 3% of voters who said they could still change their mind currently favor Harris, 48% to 43%."
The neck-and-neck race between Harris and Trump has been apparent for some time, with the Emerson findings reflective of the narrowing contest between the two.
The RealClearPolitics polling average showed Harris leading Trump by 1.5 points and polling from the battleground states revealed razor-thin margins favoring Trump.
The Emerson poll was conducted Oct. 14-16 and surveyed 1,000 likely voters. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.