Rep. Mikie Sherrill, D-N.J., is currently leading GOP rival Jack Ciattarelli in the New Jersey governor's race by 9 points, according to the latest Rutgers/Eagleton poll, but the contest's dynamics could undergo a shift before November, The Hill reported.
With less than three months to go before Election Day, pollsters noted that the 17% of undecided likely voters could play a huge role in determining the next governor of the Garden State.
"As summer winds down and the campaigns enter the final months, the race for governor has tightened," Ashley Koning, director of the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling at Rutgers University-New Brunswick, said in statement in a press release.
"Sherrill still has the edge, but the important thing to take away here is that the race is competitive and will continue to be in flux, in large part because there are still a notable number of undecideds."
Eagleton survey data taken in mid-June and released at the beginning of last month found Sherrill leading Ciattarelli by a 20-point margin, a finding the Republican's supporters have dismissed as erroneous.
"We are also at a turning point in New Jersey politics," Koning said in her statement. "Likely voters are always an unknown population, but especially given today's political climate, shifting turnout dynamics in the state, and the race's history-making potential, we simply do not know who will definitively turn out come Election Day. The only thing for certain is that all eyes are on New Jersey this cycle."
Apart from New Jersey, Virginia is the only other state holding a gubernatorial election this fall. The governors of both states are term-limited and cannot be reelected.
New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy, a Democrat, has been in office since 2018 and instituted a number of controversial COVID-19 measures during the pandemic.
The poll revealed entrenched partisan attitudes, with 85% of Democrats saying they plan to vote for Sherrill and 81% of Republicans saying the same of Ciattarelli. Independents are nearly split down the middle, however, with 33% saying they plan to vote for Sherrill and 32% for Ciattarelli. Another 29% of independents were unsure.
"Independents are always a key voting bloc here in New Jersey," Koning said in her statement. "Despite recent Republican registration gains, Ciattarelli still needs a substantial share of independents to win in November. Likewise, Sherrill must hold her edge with independents across key areas to cushion against any softness in base turnout."
The latest Rutgers poll was conducted July 31-Aug. 11 and surveyed 1,650 likely New Jersey voters. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.