Minnesota Democrat Gov. Tim Walz earned his gubernatorial victory in 2022 using the same playbook as Democrat contenders before him — running up votes in the metropolitan areas but getting scorched in greater Minnesota, according to MSNBC's Steve Kornacki.
The data guru said Tuesday that Democrats hoping that Walz, now the vice presidential pick, expands the base for Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris across key battleground states in November's election could be in for a surprise.
"The Democrats' hope is that he's going to appeal to the blue-collar areas in these other three states. Maybe he will. But when you look at what he's done in Minnesota, you don't quite see that," Kornacki said during an appearance on "Ana Cabrera Reports" on Tuesday.
Kornacki showed that Walz lost Stearns County, for example, by roughly the same margin as President Joe Biden in 2020 and Hillary Clinton in 2016 while cleaning up in Hennepin County — home to the twin cities of Minneapolis and Saint Paul.
Kornacki said there is no Walz playbook; it's just the same old Democratic playbook. That could spell trouble for the Harris-Walz ticket in battlegrounds Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan.
"So the Walz victory in 2022 looks like what is now a standard Democratic victory in Minnesota: heavy reliance on the Twin Cities metro area and taking big losses in greater Minnesota," Kornacki said.
Kornacki added that Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump changed the political dynamic in Minnesota in 2016.
"The floor fell out for Democrats here when Trump came along in that Clinton race in 2016, and they haven't recovered it since," Kornacki said in a separate MSNBC appearance with Jose Diaz-Balart.
Stearns County is a "stand-in for dozens of counties in Minnesota" since 2016.
"Walz in 2022, he didn't gain any ground. Walz owes his victory to the Twin Cities area, where Democrats are already doing well. It's the standard Democratic victory modal in a state like this," Kornacki said.
"Look at his electoral history. The idea that he's got this automatic appeal with small town areas in those three key battleground states, you don't see it in what he actually did on the ballot in 2022," he added.