In a hypothetical 2024 contest, former President Donald Trump has a 48% to 44% lead over President Joe Biden, marking a 2-point change from November, when Trump was ahead by 45% to 43%, according to the latest Emerson College national poll.
Concerning the midterm elections, half of voters said they plan to vote for the Republican candidate, compared with 41% who said they intend to choose the Democratic one, with 9% undecided. This is similar to the November poll, which had Republican candidates nationwide leading Democrats 49% to 42%.
Other results from the survey include:
- Seventy-three percent of registered voters said they are very motivated to vote in the midterms, with Republican voters (at 79%) more motivated than Democrats (at 65%).
- Only 57% of voters under 30 years of age said they are very motivated to vote, compared with 84% of those over 50 who indicated they are very motivated to cast a ballot.
- Only 42% approve of the job Biden is doing as president, while 50% disapprove and 8% are unsure. Although this is a slight increase in approval from November, when 41% approved of his job performance and 50% disapproved, it is well below Biden’s top approval rating, which was 10 points higher early in his presidency.
- Hispanic voters are most critical of Biden’s job performance, with only 35% approving while 56% disapprove. Among white voters, 41% approve and 51% disapprove. Black voters are the most favorable of Biden’s job performance, with 66% approving and 28% disapproving.
- Among Democrats, 73% approve of the job Biden is doing, while 19% disapprove. Among Republicans, 71% disapprove and 22% approve. For independents, 27% approve and 63% disapprove.
- When asked what is the most important issue facing the nation, 24% said inflation, followed by COVID-19 with 20% and healthcare at 16%. Next on the list was immigration (11%), education and jobs (6% each) and taxes and foreign affairs (3% each). Twelve percent said ''something else'' was the most important issue.
- Inflation was the most important issue cited by Republican (34%) and Independent (27%) voters, compared to only 12% of Democrats. The top issue for Democrats was split between COVID-19 (31%) and healthcare (27%).
- When asked about the level of threat COVID-19 presents to public health, 28% said it is a major threat, 37% said a moderate threat, 20% a minor threat, and 15% that it is not a threat at all. This compares to December 2020, when 54% said COVID-19 was a major threat and only 17% found it to be a minor threat or not one at all.
The poll was conducted among registered voters on February 19-20, with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points.