Presidential historian Allan Lichtman, who is known as the "Nostradamus" of U.S. executive branch elections, is warning Democrats that failing to unite behind Vice President Kamala Harris as the party's presidential nominee would be "insanity."
Lichtman, a history professor at American University in Washington, D.C., said unity would be an important factor in the Democrats' holding the presidency in the wake of President Joe Biden's decision to drop out of the race and endorse Harris for the nomination.
"If she's not the Democratic consensus nominee then ... not a whole lot would have to go wrong for the Democrats to lose," Lichtman said in a video posted to his YouTube channel. "It would be insanity for the Democrats to have a big party fight now, recreate the conditions of 2016 and conditions which over 120 years have always spelled defeat for the White House party.
"It's a crisis of their own making, but with a consensus behind Harris it's still a crisis that is well salvageable for the Democratic Party," he added.
Biden's decision to end his reelection bid came after weeks of mounting pressure from within his own party following his shaky and halting debate performance against former President Donald Trump on June 27 and several public gaffes.
Nine of the past 10 presidential elections were correctly predicted by Lichtman, going back to 1984, with the one exception being the election of 2000. Lichtman said Vice President Al Gore would win the race against George W. Bush; Gore won the popular vote but Bush won the Electoral College.
The professor's "Keys to the White House" prediction model uses a set of 13 true/false statements, known as "keys," which are designed to examine the political environment and predict the outcome of American presidential elections.
In a 2012 article for the journal "Social Education," Lichtman outlined the keys as follows:
- Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
- No primary contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
- Incumbent seeking reelection: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
- No third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
- Strong short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
- Strong long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
- Major policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
- No social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
- No scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
- No foreign or military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
- Major foreign or military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
- Charismatic incumbent: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
- Uncharismatic challenger: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
The incumbent party is expected to lose the election if six or more of the keys are false, while it is expected to win if five or fewer are false.
Instead of relying on traditional polling or subjective analysis, Lichtman's system is designed to measure the strength of the current administration.