An April Kaplan Strategies poll has former President Donald Trump with a big lead over President Joe Biden in Michigan.
The poll has Trump leading Biden 51%-36% in a state that will be key to determining who wins the 2024 presidential election.
Biden beat Trump in the Great Lakes State by 2.8 points in 2020. In 2016, Trump defeated Hillary Clinton by just .23 points, 10,000 votes, the first time Michigan voted Republican since 1988.
Both sides have been campaigning aggressively in Michigan, with Trump recently hosting a rally in Freeland. Third-party candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will also be on the ballot in Michigan and could draw support from both parties.
While the poll shows good news for Trump, it is almost certainly an outlier.
A poll conducted by The Hill/Emerson released April 30, has Trump up by 1 point, while a CBS News poll conducted last Sunday has Biden up two points. Most other polls show the race to be within a margin of error, with Trump on average leading 46%-44.8%, according to RealClear Politics.
FiveThirtyEight, a website that analyzes polls and pollsters, gives Kaplan Strategies a two-star rating out of three stars, with a transparency score of 2.4 out of 10.
Kaplan Strategies surveyed 804 people April 20-21 with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 points.