As the trial of former President Donald Trump in New York City nears its conclusion, 53% of voters in the latest Rasmussen poll say he will be found guilty by the jury.
A guilty verdict is very likely, 23% say, while 31% say it is not likely Trump will be convicted, including 11% who say a guilty verdict is not at all likely. Fifteen percent are not sure.
More Democrats (69%) than Republicans (43%) in the poll say it is at least somewhat likely that Trump will be found guilty by the jury in the legal expense trial.
The former president has been on trial for allegedly falsifying business records to conceal reimbursement of a payment that Michael Cohen, his then-attorney, made to adult film actress Stormy Daniels to keep Democrats from weaponizing potentially damaging allegations in the 2016 presidential election.
Jurors in recent weeks heard from Daniels, whose long-denied alleged affair with Trump underpinned the alleged illegal conduct; David Pecker, the tabloid executive who promised to "catch-and-kill" negative stories about Trump; and disbarred attorney Cohen, who allegedly arranged and executed the payments.
The trial has been closely watched by 73% of voters responding to the Rasmussen survey, including 36% who say they have followed news about the trial very closely.
Trump has repeatedly called the prosecution part of a politically motivated "witch hunt." In the survey, 52% of voters say they agree with Trump's assertion the New York case is a "witch hunt," including 40% who strongly agree. But 42% disagree with Trump's "witch hunt" description, including 32% who strongly disagree.
Many more Republicans (81%) somewhat agree with Trump's categorization, as do 33% of Democrats, and 46% of unaffiliated voters.
Voters 65 and older are most likely to say they have been following news about the Trump trial very closely, and are also most likely to strongly agree that the prosecution is a "witch hunt."
Fifty-two percent of whites, 51% of black voters, 56% of Hispanics, and 53% of other minorities say it is at least somewhat likely Trump will be found guilty.
More men (76%) than women voters (69%) say they have been closely following news about the Trump trial. Fifty-eight percent of men and 48% of women voters at least somewhat agree with Trump that the prosecution in New York is part of a "witch hunt."
Voters in the highest income bracket – earning more than $200,000 a year – are most likely to expect a guilty verdict in the Trump trial.
President Joe Biden's strongest supporters are most confident the New York jury will convict Trump. Among voters who strongly approve of Biden's job performance as president, 81% say it is at least somewhat likely that the jury will find Trump guilty. By contrast, among those who strongly disapprove of Biden's performance, just 36% consider a guilty verdict to be at least somewhat likely.
The survey of 1,092 U.S. likely voters was conducted May 15-16 and 19, 2024, by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3 percentage points. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC.