A historian who has correctly predicted the outcome in nine of the past 10 presidential elections says Vice President Kamala Harris will defeat former President Donald Trump in November.
Allan Lichtman, known as the "Nostradamus" of U.S. elections, announced his prediction Thursday in an opinion video for The New York Times.
"Kamala Harris will be the next president of the United States," Lichtman says in the video. "At least, that's my prediction for this race."
Lichtman based his prediction on what he calls "13 keys," of which he says Harris wins eight and Trump wins five.
"They are 13 big-picture, true-false questions that tap into the strength and performance of the White House party. And only two keys have anything to do with the candidates," says Lichtman, who adds a true statement gives Harris the key, and a false gives Trump the key.
Some of Lichtman's explanations in determining each key's winners likely will not sit well with many Republicans and some independent voters.
For example, the historian says the vice-president wins two keys for a strong short-term economy and for long-term economic growth.
"Look, despite all the loose talk about a so-called vibecession, the economy is not in recession," Lichtman says in the video. "Growth during the Biden term is far ahead of growth during the previous two terms."
Lichtman also says Harris earns a key because the White House is untainted by scandal despite numerous House investigations into President Joe Biden and his family members over allegations of influence peddling.
"There has to be at least some bipartisan recognition of actual corruption that implicates the president himself and not a family member," Lichtman says.
He also gives Harris a key because, he claims, Trump is uncharismatic.
"Some people think Trump is a God, but he only appeals to a narrow base," Lichtman says in the video.
Four other keys siding with Harris, with Lichtman's comments, are:
- The White House party has made major changes to national policy – "Rejoining the Paris Accords on climate change, the CHIPS bill, the infrastructure bill, the Inflation Reduction and climate change bill. Clearly, the key is true."
- There is no sustained social unrest – "There have been sporadic protests, but nothing approaching the massive, sustained social unrest needed to turn this key."
- The White House party avoided a primary contest – "The Democrats finally got smart and united overwhelmingly behind Vice President Harris."
- There is no third-party challenger – "RFK Jr. has dropped out of the race and no other third-party candidate is anywhere close to the 10% polling threshold needed to turn this key."
Lichtman gave Trump wins for the following keys:
- The White House party gained House seats during the midterm elections. (False)
- The sitting president is running for reelection. (False)
- The incumbent party candidate is charismatic. (False)
- The White House party has no major failure in foreign policy. (False)
- The White House party has foreign policy success. (False)
In his 1988 book, "Thirteen Keys to the Presidency," Lichtman explained how he forms his presidential election prediction.