Hurricane Milton, considered a once-in-a-century storm, could cause between $50 billion to $150 billion in damages when it makes landfall Wednesday on Florida’s Gulf Coast, CNBC reported Tuesday, citing leading Wall Street analysts.
Milton, which formed in the Gulf of Mexico, rapidly intensified Monday to a Category 5 storm, with winds reportedly reaching 180 mph. By Tuesday, its wind speeds dropped, although they climbed back to 155 mph by Tuesday afternoon, just below Category 5 status. It is expected to hit Tampa on Wednesday morning, likely as a Category 3 storm, bringing 10- to 15-foot storm surges to Tampa Bay.
“While too early to make insured loss estimates, a major hurricane impact in one of Florida’s most heavily populated regions could result in [a] mid-double-digit billion-dollar loss,” Jefferies equity analyst Yaron Kinar and others said in a note, according to CNBC. “A 1-in-100-year event is estimated by some to result in $175 [billion] in losses for landfall in the Tampa region, and $70 [billion] in losses in the [Fort] Myers region.”
Just two years ago, Hurricane Ian hit near the Fort Myers area as a Category 4 storm and left behind more than $50 billion in losses, CNBC reported. Ian was considered a 1-in-20-year event.
“Should Milton’s path through the more developed Tampa region hold, potential losses could be greater,” Kinar said.
Wells Fargo noted the “market seems to be factoring in a loss of over $50 billion at this point,” according to CNBC. The firm set a wide range for potential damages from $10 billion to $100 billion.
The region was rocked almost two weeks ago by Hurricane Helene, which left behind devastation that Moody’s on Tuesday estimated at about $11 billion, CNBC reported. In addition to the property damage, Moody’s expected the National Flood Insurance Program likely will see losses approaching $2 billion.
The firm’s analysts have not yet estimated potential damage from Milton.
“Hurricane Helene is by far the most impactful event of the current 2024 hurricane season … though this may quickly change with Major Hurricane Milton due to impact Florida in the coming days,” said Mohsen Rahnama, chief risk modeling officer at Moody’s, according to CNBC.
Milton is not expected to wreck as much widespread havoc as Helene, which devastaed areas in Georgia, Tennessee, and North Carolina, as well as Florida.