A new poll conducted by the Democrat-leaning Beacon Research and the Republican-leaning Shaw & Company Research has Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump 2 points ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris nationally.
Trump leads Harris 50%-48% both among registered voters and likely voters in the poll.
According to Polymarket, a betting website, Trump is the favorite in every swing state.
"Overall, the movement toward Trump is subtle but potentially consequential, especially if he is making gains among college-educated voters," Democrat pollster Chris Anderson said. "However, the race has been well within the margin of error for three months and the outcome will likely hinge on which side is more effective at getting their voters to the polls as opposed to persuasion."
The poll also highlighted demographic shifts. Trump's strongest gains have been among white voters and those with a college degree, while Harris has seen declines in support from key groups such as Black voters and voters over 65.
Trump is favored on issues such as the economy, immigration, and crime, while Harris leads on topics like abortion, climate change, and healthcare.
Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research polled 1,110 registered voters and 870 likely voters Oct. 11-14. The results have margins of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points for both sets.