Zohran Mamdani could become the first New York City mayor in recent history to be elected without getting majority support.
The front-runner and Democrat nominee has consistently polled at 45%, according to a polling aggregate from the New York Times. While he leads challenger former Gov. Andrew Cuomo by double digits, Mamdani might not achieve a mandate for his Democratic Socialist agenda for City Hall.
"It's not going to be easy," Basil Smikle Jr., former head of the New York State Democrats, said to Politico. "If he gets under 50%, that means half or more of voters wanted someone more moderate or conservative than he is. And that says a lot about how he will govern."
The last two mayors, Bill de Blasio and Eric Adams, were elected with more than 66% of the vote while only facing Republican opposition. Aside from Cuomo, Mamdani is being challenged by Curtis Sliwa, the Republican nominee, who has rebuffed calls to drop out.
"It's a problem for him if he comes under 50%," said a Democratic political strategist to Politico. "He has a series of people who are his enemies and they are probably not going to beat him at the ballot box, so they are going to look for other ways to undermine him."
Mamdani's campaign is working to get him over the 50% threshold, Politico reported, with more than 75,000 volunteers and a goal of getting 90,000 volunteers by Election Day, who are being sent into districts expected to support Cuomo to depress his numbers.
"Whoever wins will have a mandate," Chris Coffey, head of the political consulting firm Tusk Strategies said. "If Mamdani [wins], it's his 46,000-plus volunteers who are passionate, fired up and ready to march through walls for him. If Mamdani can use that passion in Albany, or with potential legislative primaries or the threat of them, moderates will take note. And that's the only real mandate he needs."
More than 46,000 new voters have been added to the rolls since the primary, with over 80% under the age of 40, according to the Mamdani campaign.
"Zohran Mamdani won the Democratic primary with more votes than any nominee in history," Mamdani spokesperson Dora Pekec said in a statement. "Now, running in an unprecedentedly crowded field, he maintains a 20-point lead across public polling. New Yorkers are ready for change."
Sam Barron ✉
Sam Barron has almost two decades of experience covering a wide range of topics including politics, crime and business.