Regime change in Syria has forced two key American allies, Turkey and Israel, into a state of potential confrontation. While both have an interest in avoiding a clash, their respective imperatives threaten to undermine the interests of the other.
Iran, which has experienced a historic setback to its influence in the Levant, is undoubtedly working on exploiting Turkish-Israeli tensions to its benefit. Uniquely positioned as a close ally of both Ankara and Jerusalem, Azerbaijan can play a key role in helping the United States avoid a Turkey-Israel conflict.
Military and security officials from Israel and Turkey met April 9 in Azerbaijan to hold deconfliction discussions. The meeting in Baku took place two days after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met with U.S. President Donald Trump who in their joint press conference noted his close relationship with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and told the Israeli prime minister, “Any problem that you have with Turkey, I think I can solve … as long as you’re reasonable, you have to be reasonable.”
The technical talks in the Azerbaijani capital also came a week after Israeli warplanes struck military bases in Syria where Turkey is in the process of deploying forces.
Israeli airstrikes in Syria are not new and date back to the weakening of the Assad regime in the aftermath of the civil war that broke out in 2011. Until last fall, the targets were Hezbollah and Iran, which had gained freedom of operation in the country as Assad became heavily dependent upon the two.
The 2024 decimation of Hezbollah’s leadership and destruction of its offensive war-making capabilities led to the December 8, 2024 collapse of the old regime, which was replaced by the new government led by the Turkey-backed Sunni Islamist group, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS).
Essentially, Turkey and its allies had replaced Iran and its proxies as the dominant actor in Syria, which in some ways has worsened the long-term security situation on Israel’s northern flank.
Unlike the Iranian-supported Assad government, the Turkish-backed new regime-in-the-making has gained international backing, especially from the United States. Turkey seeks a Syria closely aligned with its interests and has been making considerable headway, especially considering the power-sharing deal between Syria’s Kurdish separatists and HTS.
The Turks are hoping to rebuild the Syrian military, which would allow them to station troops currently deployed in northern Syria to areas much closer to Israel’s border. From an Israeli point of view, Syria is on the path of becoming a hostile state actor backed by a major power.
Addressing an April 3rd press briefing in Paris Israel's Foreign Minister Gideon Saar said that Turkey is playing a negative role in Syria, Lebanon, and the wider region. Saar went on to say that Ankara is doing its “utmost to have Syria as a Turkish protectorate.”
Conversely, speaking to Anadolu Agency Turkey’s foreign minister Hakan Fidan criticized IDF airstrikes and ground incursion into Syria. Fidan was quoted as saying "it is unacceptable for Israel to try and provoke in Syria by using its expansionist ambitions in the region ... we won’t just sit and watch."
From Turkey’s point of view, Israel’s military operations in Syria undermine their efforts to stabilize their southern flank. Neither side will back down from its objectives, which means both regional powers will be engaged in their separate military operations in the same battlespace.
This is why, for now, the Turks, according to Fidan, want to reach a technical modus vivendi on a deconfliction mechanism that avoids accidents — similar to the ones that Ankara has with the United States and Russia. Deconfliction mechanisms do not, however, solve the reality that the two sides have competing interests in Syria and a deteriorating relationship.
This emerging situation is unacceptable for Azerbaijan. The Azerbaijanis cannot afford to see the Turks and the Israelis on a collision course. Baku would not want to be forced to take sides.
What it has going for itself is that both Ankara and Jerusalem trust Baku.
The South Caucasus nation is uniquely positioned in that it enjoys close strategic relations with both sides, and so does the U.S. This would explain why this initial round of tactical-level talks took place in Baku.
Alongside these talks Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, April 11 met with Erdoğan and Syrian President Ahmad al-Shara in Antalya. It is not the first time though that the Azerbaijanis have played such a role.
They played a critical role in helping Israel and Turkey de-escalate in the aftermath of the 2010 incident in which IDF forces boarded a Turkish flotilla trying to run the Israeli blockade of Gaza. Similar mediation efforts took place in 2016 and 2020.
While technically outside the Middle East, Azerbaijan has a major stake in the stability of the region. Baku is all too aware of how a Turkish-Israeli conflict will benefit Iran, its immediate neighbor to the south with whom its own relations have been deeply problematic.
At a time when the U.S. is trying to ensure that Turkey and Israel do not spar and is in talks with Iran on its controversial nuclear program, Azerbaijan can prove to be a key partner. Baku certainly has credibility with both the Turks and the Israelis.
American and Israeli commentators, as well as leaders of American Jewish communities, have been calling for the inclusion of Azerbaijan in the Abraham Accords framework. These include Simon Wiesenthal Center founder Rabbi Marvin Hierand senior rabbi based in the UAE, Eli Abadi who is close friends with President Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, the architect of the Abraham Accords.
Likewise, since its independence in the wake of the 1991 Soviet implosion, Azerbaijani-Turkish cooperation has grown considerably. Turkey’s critical military and intelligence support enabled Azerbaijan to defeat historic rival Armenia in the 2020-23 Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
In many ways, Baku’s relations with Ankara are at the same level, or more developed, than Azerbaijan’s relations with former liege Russia. Azerbaijani oil exports to Israel go through the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline via Turkey, which have remained uninterrupted throughout the war in Gaza.
Thus, the Trump White House — as it tries to manage the Middle East in which Turkey and Israel will be competing for influence — can deeply benefit from a closer partnership with Azerbaijan, including by having it join the Abraham Accords.
Baku can be a critical player in the region in keeping with the Trump administration’s strategy to have regional actors take the lead on managing security.
Colonel Wes Martin, is a retired U.S. Army colonel, has served in law enforcement positions around the world and holds a MBA in International Politics and Business.
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