The recent arrest of two Ukrainian divers, one in Poland, the other in Italy, on charges of blowing up the Nordstream 2 pipeline in the Baltic Sea in 2022, has given occasion for continuing discussion in Germany about causes of war in Ukraine and how the country might have contributed to it.
The government demanded their extradition from Italy and Poland for trial in Germany.
A court in Poland dismissed the charges; in Italy there will be a hearing next month.
This seems to relate to widespread conviction that Nordstream 2, signifying intensive economic cooperation and constructed already after the 2014 Russian invasion of Crimea, was a major contributing factor to Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine in 2022.
This is because it gave Putin an option to isolate Ukraine and cut off its energy supplies without affecting Russian clients in the West.
Thus, Germany bears an indirect responsibility for the invasion.
Therefore, many regard its destruction by Ukraine as justified to ensure it will not resume operations soon, as Germany seems to plan its reactivation.
Angela Merkel, the German Chancellor at the time, is trying to defend herself from blame.
Merkel was the former deputy spokeswoman of the last East German government, according to Kristina Spohr of Johns Hopkins University, and a most pro-Russian German politician in recent history.
Last month, she gave an interview to a Hungarian podcast where she justified her actions by claiming that she had a successful plan to prevent the war.
Since the Minsk negotiations between Russia, Germany, France, and Ukraine in the aftermath of the 2014 Russian invasion, were constantly violated by Putin, she formulated a new strategy in June 2021.
France and Germany would negotiate a new agreement with Putin, presumably even more accommodating than Minsk, in the name of the European Union as a whole.
However, negotiations never went forward because the Baltic states and Poland would not agree. Merkel implied that they were wrong.
But Germany has a reputation as an appeaser of Russia and most EU countries do not want to be represented by them, especially in area as sensitive as national security.
Poland responded that it had no faith in Merkel's strategy and wanted to get the United States involved in negotiations.
There is general dismay that Merkel persists in her claims, despite their evident failure.
Even though the German government does not explain its foreign policy in 2007-2022, there is a discussion in the German press about Merkel's policy of military cooperation with Russia during this time.
Germany built command centers for the Russian Army, full of modern electronics, and was training Russian military units in latest innovations.
Common military exercises were planned for 2014.
But this cooperation was disrupted with Putin's occupation of Crimea and fighting in the Donbas. Even during the 2015-2022 period when Russia was sanctioned, Germany and other European countries sold arms to Russia.
The issue is:
—What was the purpose of German modernization of the Russian Army?
—To prepare it to fight NATO?
—Or to invade countries in Eastern Europe?
There is an ambivalence about the West at the center of German politics and culture.
There is a historical and philosophical attraction to Russia to a large part of the German elite, which wants wide-ranging cooperation with Russia at any cost to the rest of Europe.
It gives it a counterweight vis-à-vis the American influence in Europe and economic benefits based on cheap Russian raw materials, especially energy.
But this future relationship with Russia, which is so important to the German elite, is a source of conflict, not only with Poland and other East Europeans, but possibly also the United States.
Germans want continuity, old models, and freedom to make policy over heads of other countries. But this only arouses distrust and apprehension.
Merkel's policies went squarely against interests of Eastern Europe and Ukraine, and this is not being acknowledged.
After war started, Germany announced Zeitenwende, a reversal of its previous policy.
There were promises of serious aid to Ukraine, independence from Russian energy, halt to appeasement of Russia, and new expenditures for the modernization of the German Army.
But as the German think tank DGPA reported last year, after four years of war, German policy remains superficial, ambiguous, hesitant, and ducking its responsibilities.
All signs point that it wants to go back to business as usual.
This is significant in view of current discussions about blame for outbreak of war in Ukraine, but also future plans.
Germany is pressing hard for centralization of all foreign and military policies of the European Union under Germany's leadership.
This involves depriving smaller European countries of their right of veto of major EU decisions. Germany refuses to consider admittance of other countries to the European Union, including Ukraine, unless its demands are met.
Germany is driving to dominate Europe politically and economically, something it failed to achieve in two world wars.
Restoration of its special relationship with Russia and continuing extensive trade with China put it at odds with the United States.
Europe needs real deterrence in alliance with the United States. Germany has interests against its allies, and it wants to have a right to decide unilaterally.
Most Europeans reject that and fear the consequences.
The issue is what will the United States do?
Appoint Germany its chief enforcer in Europe as the Biden administration did or look for new solutions?
Germany does not deserve to be the leader of Europe and the war crisis in Ukraine demonstrated it.
Dr. Lucja Swiatkowski Cannon is a senior research fellow at the Institute of World Politics in Washington, D.C. She was a strategist, policy adviser and project manager on democratic and economic reforms in Eastern Europe, the Baltics, and Central, South and Southeast Asia for Deloitte & Touche Emerging Markets, Coopers & Lybrand, and others. She has been a scholar at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). Dr. Cannon received a B.A., M.Phil. and Ph.D. from Columbia University where she was an International Fellow and IREX Scholar at Warsaw University, and the London School of Economics. Read more of Dr. Swiatkowski Cannon's reports — Here.
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