Sep 29, 2025
Lately, there's been a growing sense of confidence among investors that the U.S. economy has dodged the proverbial bullet. Despite a historic rate-hiking cycle by the Federal Reserve, two years of stubborn inflation, and signs of strain in global trade, the dominant Wall...
Sep 22, 2025
Just recently, Scott Rubner of Citadel Securities wrote an excellent piece discussing the bull versus the bear case for the markets.
Sep 15, 2025
The latest employment data strongly warned of a potential corporate earnings slowdown ahead. This is the first time we have warned about the employment data and its impact on corporate earnings.
Sep 8, 2025
A recent post from Daniel Lacalle, "How Keynesians Got The US Economy Wrong Again," exposed the widening gap between John Maynard Keynes' economic theory and reality.
Sep 2, 2025
What are energy prices telling us about the economy? A recent article on Bloomberg noted that: "Hedge funds slashed their bullish position on crude to the lowest in about 17 years as risks of additional sanctions on Russian crude oil waned, bringing concerns about a global...
Aug 26, 2025
The latest economic data suggests the US economy is decelerating. That means growth is slowing, jobs are shrinking, and households are spending less.
Aug 18, 2025
Mainstream commentary repeats a simple refrain: "Buybacks return capital to shareholders." The logic sounds convincing. A company reduces its outstanding shares, giving each shareholder a larger slice of the earnings pie.
Aug 11, 2025
In recent months, much debate has been about rising debt and increasing deficit levels in the U.S.