Tags: brokerages | federal reserve | jobs | rates | inflation

Major Brokerages Divided Over Fed's Next Move

Major Brokerages Divided Over Fed's Next Move
A relief at the Federal Reserve Bank of the United States, Washington, D.C. (AP)

Friday, 21 November 2025 10:39 AM EST

Global brokerages are split over whether the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in December or hold them, following conflicting signals on job growth and unemployment earlier in the week.

Data on Thursday showed non-farm payrolls increased by 119,000 jobs in September after a downwardly revised 4,000 drop in August. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 50,000 jobs would be added.

However, the unemployment rate increased to a four-year high of 4.4% in September.

J.P. Morgan and Standard Chartered joined Morgan Stanley in withdrawing their forecasts for a 25-basis-point rate cut next month.

On the other hand, Deutsche Bank, Citigroup, Wells Fargo and BNP Paribas reiterated their forecast of a 25 bps cut, but acknowledged the probability of the Fed keeping rates steady had risen significantly.

The divide comes as some analysts argued the rise in the jobless rate supported the case for another interest rate cut next month.

"A December cut is admittedly a close call, but we think the steady rise in the unemployment rate to 4.44% will be enough to encourage 'open minded' officials to support a cut," Citi said.

Other brokerages said the better-than-expected job growth suggested the U.S. central bank should stay pat, especially since policymakers would not get another employment report before the December 9-10 meeting.

"The absence of November labor data may make it harder for doves to insist on the need for a cut," Standard Chartered added.

Traders are betting on a 67.1% chance for the Fed to keep rates steady in December, as per the CME FedWatch tool.

Nomura and BofA Global Research retained their expectations of no rate cut in December.

"A December cut is still not our base case, but it's a closer call now," BofA added.

© 2025 Thomson/Reuters. All rights reserved.


StreetTalk
Global brokerages are split over whether the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in December or hold them, following conflicting signals on job growth and unemployment earlier in the week.
brokerages, federal reserve, jobs, rates, inflation
289
2025-39-21
Friday, 21 November 2025 10:39 AM
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