A burst of oil trading worth more than $500 million hit the market about 15 minutes before President Donald Trump announced a five-day delay in threatened strikes on Iranian energy sites, a well-timed bet that sent crude prices sharply lower and raised immediate questions about who sold and what they knew.
Reuters reported that exchange data and its calculations showed traders sold 5,100 lots of Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude futures between 10:49 a.m. and 10:50 a.m. GMT Monday, a position worth well over $500 million.
Reuters said selling dominated that minute's activity, though it could not identify the traders. At 11:05 a.m. GMT, Trump posted on Truth Social that talks with Tehran were progressing and that attacks on Iran's energy infrastructure would be delayed for five days.
The market reaction was immediate.
Brent fell to about $99 a barrel from $112 after Trump's post, while WTI dropped to roughly $86 from near $99. The move capped one of the sharpest reversals of the conflict as traders scrambled to price in the possibility that a direct hit on Iran's energy sector and a deeper supply shock might not come that day.
The trades landed in a market already on edge.
Oil prices remain more than 40% above pre-conflict levels, while Brent futures turnover has surged from an average of about 300,000 lots a day in the three years before the war to roughly double that level in recent weeks, at times topping 1 million lots a day.
That backdrop helps explain why even a short-lived diplomatic signal could move prices violently.
Trump had threatened Iran with strikes on power plants and other energy-related targets if Tehran did not reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran later denied talks with the United States had taken place after Trump postponed the strikes.
The key question is the timing.
Reuters reported it was not possible to establish who placed the pre-post trades.
The Intercontinental Exchange and CME Group did not immediately respond to Reuters' requests for comment, and the Securities and Exchange Commission declined to comment.
That leaves a conspicuous trade, a narrow time window, and no public answer yet as to whether the sellers were simply lucky in a war market or acted on information not available to everyone else.
Reuters contributed to this report.
Jim Thomas ✉
Jim Thomas is a writer based in Indiana. He holds a bachelor's degree in Political Science, a law degree from U.I.C. Law School, and has practiced law for more than 20 years.
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