The benchmark S&P 500 should end next year at 7,500, helped by a resilient U.S. economy and an artificial intelligence-driven "supercycle," according to Dubravko Lakos-Bujas, J.P. Morgan's head of global markets strategy.

The index ended Tuesday at 6,765.89. If the S&P 500 finishes next year at 7,500, it would mean a gain of 10.9% from here. The forecast is close to the 7,490 median year-end 2026 target in a new Reuters poll of equity strategists.

The J.P. Morgan outlook, released late Tuesday by Lakos-Bujas and his team, is based on two more interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve followed by an extended pause, but they noted that if the Fed eases policy further than that, the S&P 500 could surpass 8,000 in 2026.

"The U.S. is set to remain the world's growth engine," they wrote.

Lakos-Bujas sees S&P 500 earnings growth of 13-15% for at least the next two years. According to LSEG, analysts expect 2026 S&P 500 earnings growth of 14.3% year-over-year.

"Despite AI bubble and valuation concerns, we see current elevated multiples correctly anticipating above-trend earnings growth, an AI capex boom, rising shareholder payouts, and easier fiscal policy," they wrote.